Hello,
For weeks, the Nordic story was falling log prices. In #133, I reported Norway's fall. In #135, Sveaskog's. Sweden's new official numbers are less simple. Spruce sawlogs went up. Pine sawlogs went down. And one more sawing line is set to stop.
Plus an EUDR outage plan, a forest fund's numbers, and two carbon announcements.
Here's what's moving European forestry this week:
🎧 New: I was a guest on the Forest Invest Podcast
Shauna Matkovich hosts the Forest Invest Podcast. She invited me for episode 102. The episode runs about 54 minutes. We talked about Europe's forest industry and its investment climate.
Thank you, Shauna, for the invitation.
🔍 The Big Story
🇸🇪 Spruce up, pine down: Sweden's log prices split
What happened
On 3 November, the Swedish Forest Agency published roundwood prices for the third quarter. They cover July to September. These are prices on harvesting assignments. That means the buyer organises the harvest. Changes are against the second quarter:
Spruce sawlogs: SEK 1,124 per m³sub, up 6%
Pine sawlogs: SEK 822 per m³sub, down 4%
Conifer pulpwood: SEK 564 per m³sub, almost unchanged
Broadleaf pulpwood: SEK 558 per m³sub, down 1%
Fuelwood: SEK 427 per m³sub, down 5%
One m³sub is a solid cubic metre without bark.
Delivery timber is a different sale method. The owner brings the wood to the roadside. There, sawlogs fell 6% and pulpwood 5%. The release gives no kronor figures for these. Those delivery figures cover all species together. They are not a spruce-only comparison.
The spruce path this year
First quarter: SEK 1,158
Second quarter: SEK 1,059
Third quarter: SEK 1,124
So spruce recovered about two thirds of its spring fall. It is still about 3% below the first quarter. Both are my calculations.
On the same day, a sawing line
On 3 November, Holmen said it intends to stop sawing at Kroksjön. The site is near Skellefteå, in northern Sweden.
The announcement affects 50 employees, who face redundancy.
Planing, painting, impregnation and finger-jointing stay at Kroksjön.
The wood for that work will come from Holmen's Bygdsiljum sawmill.
Holmen expects the change to be done by 1 March 2027.
"At present it is not profitable to produce wood products at the current scale at our sawmills," says Karolina Svensson. She leads Holmen's wood products business. The quote is translated from Swedish. This is an announcement, not a finished closure. Holmen also announced negotiations on a new organisation.
Across the border
On 30 October, Viken Skog announced higher prices. Viken Skog is a forest owners' co-operative in eastern Norway.
Pulpwood: its rises this autumn total NOK 50 per m³. The latest step applies from 1 November.
Spruce sawlogs: NOK 30 more per m³ from 1 November. That is for normal dimensions, 18 cm or more.
Viken gives two reasons: low stocks at the mills and strong demand for spruce.
What the numbers do not say
The Swedish prices are calculated, volume-weighted averages. The agency says they "do not reflect the prevailing market price during the quarter."
They are roadside prices. Harvest, transport and replanting costs are not taken off.
The third-quarter figures are preliminary.
Viken Skog's rise is one buyer's price list. It is not a national figure.
Kroksjön is one site. It is not a measure of all Swedish sawmilling.
Why this matters
As reported in #133, Norway's average log price was down 26% on a year earlier. As per #135, Sveaskog's own-forest prices were down 16%. Those compared with last year. Today's figures compare with last quarter. They also cover different sellers and sale methods. So all three can be true at once.
My read, and it is a read rather than a finding: "Log prices" is no longer one story. Spruce and pine sawlogs moved in opposite directions. One average would hide that.
What this means for you
If you own forest in Sweden: Check your stand's spruce and pine shares before you sell. My advice: ask for a price per species.
If you deliver timber yourself: Delivery sawlog prices fell last quarter. My advice: ask your buyer for both a delivery offer and a harvesting offer.
If you sell logs near Skellefteå: Ask your Holmen contact what the change means for deliveries.
If you invest: A year-on-year fall and a quarter-on-quarter rise can both be true. Read both. (I can help you read those numbers, see below.)
If you speak for forestry: Say which timber you mean. Spruce sawlog prices rose last quarter. Pine fell. Sources: Swedish Forest Agency — Varying price for roundwood during the third quarter of 2026 (3 Nov 2026) | Swedish Forest Agency — Second quarter of 2026 | Swedish Forest Agency — First quarter of 2026 (5 May 2026) | SVT — Holmen lägger ner sågverket i Kroksjön (3 Nov 2026, Swedish) | Skogsaktuellt — Holmen lägger ned sågverksamheten i Kroksjön (Swedish) | Viken Skog — Tømmermarkedet høsten 2026: Viken Skog øker tømmerprisene (30 Oct 2026, Norwegian) | prior ForestryBrief coverage: EFP #133, EFP #135
📊 Quick Hits
1. 🇪🇺 EUDR: the filing system gets an update, and an outage plan
In its November update, the Commission's EUDR team reported two changes to the Information System. That is where operators file their statements. The update reached subscribers on 9 November.
Release 8.2.2 now runs in the acceptance and production environments. Acceptance is the test system. Production is the live one.
It brings a new API, version 4. An API lets your software talk to the system directly.
It adds stricter input checks, including checks on GeoJSON files. GeoJSON is the file format for plot locations.
The Contingency Arrangement is published. It says what users must do if the system is down without warning.
A step-by-step guide and questions and answers come with it.
One part is not ready. The Commission says a public status page is still being built.
Why it matters: The main EUDR rules apply from 30 December 2026. Now there is a written plan for a system outage.
The context: In #134, I set out what is fixed in the rules. This is a technical update, not a new rule.
The takeaway: If your software files statements through the API, ask your provider about release 8.2.2. My advice: read the outage plan before you need it. Source: European Commission — EU Deforestation Regulation Update, November 2026 | ENV EUDR Team, newsletter email to ForestryBrief, 9 Nov 2026
2. 🇫🇮 CapMan: what a forest fund manager reported
On 5 November, CapMan published its report for January to September. CapMan is a Finnish investment firm. Its Natural Capital unit manages forest funds.
Natural Capital assets under management: €787 million at 30 September.
At the end of 2025, the figure was €816 million.
Its European Forest Fund IV held a first close in December 2025.
CapMan reports more closings in the second and third quarters of 2026.
A closing is when a fund admits investors and records their commitments. The report and presentation give no amounts for the later closings.
Why it matters: It is a dated, public record of fundraising for a European forest fund.
The context: Assets under management is not a forest price. CapMan counts invested capital and money still to invest. So the lower figure alone does not show falling land values. The report is unaudited.
CapMan describes the fund as an Article 9 product under EU rules. Article 9 funds have sustainable investment as their objective. That is the manager's own description.
The takeaway: Read a manager's report for what it counts. Money raised, money invested and land value are three different numbers. Sources: CapMan — Interim report 1–9/2026, release (5 Nov 2026) | CapMan — Interim report 1–9/2026 (PDF, pages 6 and 17) | CapMan — Q3 2026 presentation (5 Nov 2026, PDF) | CapMan — First close of European Forest Fund IV (23 Dec 2025)
3. 🌍 Forest carbon: a quality check passed, and a German buyer
Two announcements in the first week of November:
ICVCM, 3 November: The Integrity Council announced approval of a forest restoration method. Its board had decided on 19 October.
The method is M001 from Equitable Earth, version 1.3. It now meets the Core Carbon Principles (CCP). Those are the Council's quality rules for carbon credits.
Gabon, 3 November: Gabon signed agreements to sell forest carbon credits to SEFE. SEFE is a German state-owned energy company. The volume is about 6 million tonnes, Ecofin and Reuters report.
The price was not disclosed. Ecofin reports that first deliveries are expected in early 2027.
Why it matters: A German state-owned buyer signed for jurisdictional forest credits. Those are credits counted at national level, not project by project.
The context: The ICVCM approval is for a method, not for a project. It issued no credits. The method also prohibits commercial timber production and harvesting.
The takeaway: For European forest owners, this is context, not a price signal. If someone quotes you a credit price, ask for a real trade behind it. Sources: ICVCM — Integrity Council approves methodologies for coal transition and forest restoration (3 Nov 2026) | ICVCM — Board decision on M001 v1.3 (PDF) | Ecofin Agency — Gabon's first forest carbon credit deals (5 Nov 2026) | Reuters — Gabon agrees to sell about 6 million forest carbon credits (4 Nov 2026)
🔁 Follow-up: Mercer has filed
I reported in #136, that Mercer planned a prepackaged Chapter 11 case. On 9 November, Mercer and one non-operating subsidiary filed in Houston, Texas.
Mercer says holders of more than 88% of its senior notes back the plan. Those are its notes due 2028 and 2029. Its operating companies are not part of the cases. Mercer still expects to finish by the end of 2026. That needs court approval. Sources: Mercer International — Takes next step to implement recapitalization (9 Nov 2026) | Stretto — Mercer case record
📅 The Weeks Ahead
Today, Tue 10 Nov: Commission EUDR Information System training for upstream operators, 14:00 CET | BiodivFuture pre-proposals due, 12:00 CET (Biodiversa+)
November: Commission EUDR Information System trainings, all at 14:00 CET. Upstream operators: 17 and 24 November. Micro and small primary operators: 12, 19 and 26 November. Register here
Until Thu 12 Nov: ITTC 62 — Yokohama (ITTO)
Until Fri 13 Nov: FIMMA + Maderalia — Valencia
Until Fri 20 Nov: COP31 UN Climate Change Conference — Antalya, Türkiye
Wed–Thu 11–12 Nov: Puupäivä — Helsinki (Puuinfo)
Thu 12 Nov: ATIBT and UICCB workshop on assessing EUDR deforestation risk with WHISP and forest management documents
Wed 18 Nov: FOREST EUROPE webinar on forest-based education, 12:00–13:00 CET — online
Wed–Thu 18–19 Nov: German Timber Congress 2026 (DeSH) — Wiesbaden | European Bioenergy Future (Bioenergy Europe) — Brussels
Thu 19 Nov: Luke's October roundwood trade statistics (Finland) | European Bioeconomy Conference 2026 — Brussels
Tue 24 Nov: Latest date for Stora Enso's information brochure on Bergslagets Skogar. See #135
Wed 25 Nov: Forest Bioeconomy Investment Accelerator (FBIA) 2026 event — EIB, Brussels (by invitation)
Fri 27 Nov: Timber and Circular Economy CPD — online and free (PEFC via TDUK)
Mon 30 Nov: Södra's temporary birch premium: last day to sign. See #126 | Södra's browsing-damage challenge closes
Tue 1 Dec: SMURF Carbon Standard consultation closes, 17:00 CET
Wed 2 Dec: FOREST Partnership first joint call: pre-proposals due, 13:00 CET (up to €40 million)
Wed–Fri 2–4 Dec: 30th International Wood Construction Forum (IHF) — Innsbruck
Thu 10 Dec: ThinkForest: balancing biodiversity conservation and wood production — Brussels. The Integrate Network's 10-year celebration follows
Tue 15 Dec: Stora Enso extraordinary general meeting on the Bergslagets Skogar demerger — Helsinki
Wed 30 Dec: EUDR applies to large and medium operators, and to micro and small operators for products the EU Timber Regulation covered
Thu 31 Dec: Mercer's target for completing its recapitalization (by the end of 2026)
Fri 8 Jan 2027: 📌 New provisional Commission deadline in the UPM/Sappi joint venture case (M.12270). It was 9 December. The case register records commitments submitted on 4 November. See the register and #128
Mon 1 Feb 2027: GHG Protocol request for information on forest carbon accounting closes. See #132
Mon 1 Mar 2027: Holmen's expected date for the Kroksjön change. See the Big Story
Wed 31 Mar 2027: Planned completion of the Bergslagets Skogar demerger (on or about, subject to approvals)
Wed 30 Jun 2027: EUDR applies to other natural persons and micro or small operators established by 31 December 2024. Products the EU Timber Regulation covered are excluded from this later date
Thu 1 Jul 2027: Most VCS Version 5 rules take effect (Verra). See #136
💡 One Thing to Try This Week
Split your last timber sale by species and grade.
One average price hides what each log earned. Here is a quick check.
Take the measurement note from your last sale.
List each line: species, grade, volume and price.
Work out the share of your income from each line.
Mark the two lines that earned the most.
Look up official figures for those two lines in your country.
Compare like with like: same species, grade, sale method and unit. An official average is not an offer. But now you know which price to watch.
📖 The Forestry Communication Playbook
"Are timber prices going up or down?"
A neighbour may ask after this week's headlines. Or a family member, or a local reporter. The calm answer is "which timber?" Saying that without sounding evasive takes practice.
Part 1 covers the questions that arrive without warning.
📗 The Forest-Investment Dictionary
First close. Assets under management. Article 9.
Today, those words describe a forest fund. Shauna's podcast lives in that language too.
I wrote the Forest-Investment Dictionary with Danish forest economist Anders Tærø Nielsen. It has 151 pages, 11 chapters, 14 printable tools, and 3 calculators. Investors learn to read a forest. Foresters learn to read a term sheet.
When the market turns, the people who can read the numbers make the better calls. The price is €99. Get yours below.
📘 The Organization — Playbook Part 3
I wrote The Organization, Part 3 of the Playbook. It has 165 pages, 10 chapters, 10 printable tools, and a survey. It shows what it takes to be heard, and who does the work.
Almost nobody in European forestry publishes what communication costs. The survey inside starts the count. The price is €149. Get yours below.
🤝 ForestryBriefing
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Until Thursday!
Wish you all the best: Peter
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