Hello,
The main EUDR rules apply in about nine weeks. Nine weeks is short for a supply chain. It is long enough for a plan.
This issue sets out what is fixed. Plus wood fuel prices, a forest business split in two, and a carbon-market deal.
Here's what's moving European forestry this week:
One question for you
What's the one forest-market question your team must answer before 2027 budgets close?
Hit reply with one line. I read every answer and never name who asked.
Want the answer for your own business? Add "briefing" to your reply, and I'll send a one-page outline.
π The Big Story
πͺπΊ Nine weeks to the EUDR: what is fixed
The rule in short
The EUDR is the EU Deforestation Regulation. It sets three conditions for wood on the EU market:
Deforestation-free: no deforestation after 31 December 2020. For wood, the harvest must also not cause forest degradation.
Legal: produced under the laws of the country where it was cut.
Declared: covered by a due diligence statement or a simplified declaration.
What is fixed: the dates
Regulation (EU) 2025/2650 set the current dates:
30 December 2026: the main rules apply to large and medium operators. Micro and small operators are included for products the EUTR covered.
30 June 2027: natural persons and micro or small operators established by 31 December 2024. It applies to their products the EUTR did not cover.
The EUTR is the EU Timber Regulation. It covered most timber products: logs, firewood, chips, sawn timber, panels, pulp and paper. So for these products, 30 December 2026 applies whatever the operator's size.
EU forest owners who harvest and sell wood are often operators. For logs and firewood, the first date is theirs.
A lighter route for small producers
Some micro and small producers get a simpler path. The EUDR calls them micro or small primary operators.
They sell wood they grew and harvested themselves, in a low-risk country. All EU member states are classified as low risk.
Under Article 4a, they file a one-time simplified declaration before they first sell. It replaces a statement per shipment. They may update it after a major change.
Commission training in November
The Commission runs online trainings on the EUDR Information System. That is where operators file their statements.
Upstream operators: 3, 10, 17 and 24 November
Micro and small primary operators: 12, 19 and 26 November
All sessions start at 14:00 CET. Register on the Commission's page.
Two maps for one cut-off year
The degradation rule matters here. Turning primary or naturally regenerating forest into plantation counts as degradation. So the forest type in 2020 matters, not only tree cover.
The EU's map. In #131, I covered Version 4 of the JRC Global Forest Cover map for 2020. The Commission says it carries no legal value. Operators may use other sources. They stay responsible for their due diligence.
A new map. On 22 October, Google DeepMind and Google Research released a Forest Typology map for 2020. They built it with the World Resources Institute (WRI) and Austria's IIASA research institute.
It sorts every 10 Γ 10 m patch of land into six classes.
The classes: primary, naturally regenerating, planted and plantation forest, tree crops, and other land.
It is free on Google Earth Engine, under an open licence.
The authors report 90.2% overall accuracy in their validation. Accuracy varies by class.
Planted forest has the lowest accuracy of the forest classes, the dataset notes say.
WRI calls it the first free, detailed global map to separate these forest types. It is not an EU map.
One name change, in case you look for it. Global Forest Watch is now Global Nature Watch, WRI announced in September.
Germany is still writing its rules
Germany's national EUDR bill, 21/8278, had its first Bundestag reading on 8 October. It is now in committee. It is not yet law.
What the maps do not say
No map replaces your own 2020 evidence. Keep your management plan, maps and images in one folder. See #131.
The new map marks primary forest cautiously near roads and settlements. Edges there may show as naturally regenerating, the dataset notes say.
Germany's bill can still change in committee.
Why this matters
The dates are in the law. The tools are arriving. Nine weeks is short, but it is enough to plan.
The checks are simple to name. Was the land cleared or the forest degraded after 2020? Was the wood cut legally? In #131, MetsΓ€ Group paused a supplier over questions about wood origin.
My read, and it is a read rather than a finding: The main gap is no longer data. It is who in each firm does the checks, and when. That is a staffing question, not a mapping one.
What this means for you
If you own forest and sell wood: You may be an operator yourself. My advice: check your role now, and book the 12 November training.
If you buy directly from an operator: Ask when it will register, and how it will send you the reference number. Further down the chain, check which records your role needs.
If you import: Use both forest maps as a first screen. Then check at source.
If you invest: Ask your managers who files the statements, and whether they have trained. (I can help with EUDR readiness, see below.)
If you speak for forestry: Say it plainly. The EUDR does not ban forestry. It asks whether wood is deforestation-free, legal and declared. Sources: EUR-Lex β Regulation (EU) 2025/2650 (dates) | European Commission β EUDR Information System, trainings and user manuals | Google DeepMind β Beyond tree cover: mapping the world's forest types (22 Oct 2026) | IIASA β Global forest typology at 10-meter resolution (preprint, 2026) | Google Earth Engine β Forest Typology (ForTy) 2020 v1.0, dataset notes | WRI β Global Forest Watch becomes Global Nature Watch (21 Sep 2026) | Deutscher Bundestag β Entwaldungsfreie Produkte (8 Oct 2026, German) | prior ForestryBrief coverage: EFP #131
π Quick Hits
1. π©πͺ Wood fuel costs far more than a year ago
On 20 October, Destatis published German producer prices for September. These are prices for goods made and sold in Germany. Changes on a year earlier:
Wood and wood products: +7.1%
Sawn softwood: +6.9%. Sawn hardwood: +2.0%.
Pellets, briquettes and firewood logs, one combined category: +38.5%
The German Pellet Institute (DEPI) gave its October average. Pellets cost β¬464.61 per tonne for a 6-tonne delivery. That is 2.3% more than in September.
In October 2025, DEPI's price was β¬366.25. So pellets now cost about 27% more, my calculation.
Why it matters: DEPI points to sawmills. Weak demand for sawn wood made many cut output. Less sawing leaves fewer residues, the main raw material for pellets.
The context: In #130, DEPI's third-quarter wood chip price was up about 13%. In #133, I reported that Nordic log prices fell. Different markets, so read it as a contrast, not a trend.
The takeaway: Wood fuel prices are well above last year's. These are index and household prices, not contract benchmarks. My advice: use them as a signal when you next talk price. Source: Destatis β Erzeugerpreise gewerblicher Produkte, September 2026 (20 Oct 2026, German) | top agrar / DEPI β Pelletpreis steigt im Oktober 2026 weniger stark an (German) | top agrar / DEPI β October 2025 price (German)
2. πΈπͺ Holmen will split its forest business in two
On 22 October, Holmen said it will divide its Forest business area in two. One part manages Holmen's own forest land. The other supplies wood to Holmen's mills.
Own forest: focus on cash flow and forest growth. The aim is higher long-term value of land and trees.
Wood supply: buying and deliveries to the mills. The focus is cost, delivery reliability and competitiveness.
Both will sit in group management. SΓΆren Petersson will lead the forest land. Fredrik Holgersson will lead wood supply.
Holmen's interim report gives no start date for the new structure.
At 30 September, Holmen's forest assets had a book value of SEK 57,630 million. A book value is an accounting figure, not a market price.
Why it matters: Holmen says the two parts follow different business logic. Owning forest and buying wood are different jobs.
The context: In #133, I pointed out that lower log prices hurt owners and helped one sawmill group. Inside one company, those two interests can pull apart.
The takeaway: If you sell wood to Holmen, a dedicated wood-supply unit will buy it. If you invest, watch how Holmen reports the two parts. Source: Holmen β Holmen splits business area Forest into two operations (22 Oct 2026) | Holmen β Interim report JanuaryβSeptember 2026 (22 Oct 2026)
3. πͺπΊ The EU carbon market keeps a bigger reserve
On 21 October, the European Parliament announced a provisional deal with the Council. It concerns the market stability reserve of the ETS, the EU's emissions trading system.
The reserve absorbs surplus emission allowances to keep the carbon price stable. One allowance covers one tonne of COβ-equivalent emissions.
Today, allowances in the reserve above 400 million are cancelled.
The deal raises that threshold to 700 million.
The Commission had proposed to stop cancelling altogether. Negotiators kept cancellation, at the higher threshold.
The deal still needs formal approval from Parliament and Council. After publication in the Official Journal, it enters into force three days later.
Why it matters: Pulp, paper and large energy plants pay the ETS carbon price. Many of them buy wood.
The context: Rapporteur Pierfrancesco Maran says the change gives the reserve "more firepower and flexibility". Negotiators also agreed that a yearly cut to the threshold should be considered. That belongs to the wider ETS revision.
The takeaway: This is market plumbing, not a price forecast. Watch the wider ETS revision for the bigger decisions. Source: European Parliament β Deal to boost market stability reserve for EU carbon market (21 Oct 2026)
π The Weeks Ahead
Until Fri 30 October: COP17 Biodiversity β Yerevan, Armenia (meetings 19β30 October)
Today, Thu 29 October: International Softwood Conference, final day β Malahide, Dublin | Weyerhaeuser third-quarter results | MetsΓ€ Board JanuaryβSeptember results
Fri 30 October: Stora Enso third-quarter report | Brazil's approach to the EUDR, presented by ATIBT β Paris
Sat 31 October: UPM's target date for completing its plywood demerger into WISA Group
November: Commission EUDR Information System trainings, all at 14:00 CET. Upstream operators: 3, 10, 17 and 24 November. Micro and small primary operators: 12, 19 and 26 November. See the Big Story. Register here
Mon 2 November: Biometria's VIOL starts rejecting integration calls without version information (Sweden) | WISA shares expected to start trading in Helsinki, on or about this date
Tue 3 November: Bergslagets Skogar Capital Markets Day β Stockholm
Wed 4 November: TDUK Global Market Conference β London | Rayonier third-quarter results
Thu 5 November: WRI webinar: agriculture and forests in the Congo Basin, 14:00 CET β online, in French with English interpretation
ThuβFri 5β6 November: π³ 11th International Hardwood Conference β Antwerp
MonβThu 9β12 November: ITTC 62 β Yokohama (ITTO)
Mon 9 β Fri 20 November: COP31 UN Climate Change Conference β Antalya, TΓΌrkiye
Tue 10 November: BiodivFuture pre-proposals due, 12:00 CET (Biodiversa+)
TueβFri 10β13 November: FIMMA + Maderalia β Valencia
WedβThu 11β12 November: PuupΓ€ivΓ€ β Helsinki (Puuinfo)
Thu 12 November: ATIBT and UICCB workshop on assessing EUDR deforestation risk with WHISP and forest management documents
WedβThu 18β19 November: German Timber Congress 2026 (DeSH) β Wiesbaden
Thu 19 November: Luke's October roundwood trade statistics (Finland)
Wed 25 November: Forest Bioeconomy Investment Accelerator (FBIA) 2026 final event β EIB, Brussels (by invitation)
Fri 27 November: Timber and Circular Economy CPD β online and free (PEFC via TDUK)
Mon 30 November: SΓΆdra's temporary birch premium window closes. See #126 | SΓΆdra's browsing-damage challenge closes
Tue 1 December: SMURF Carbon Standard consultation closes, 17:00 CET
Wed 2 December: FOREST Partnership first joint call: pre-proposals due, 13:00 CET (up to β¬40 million)
Wed 9 December: π European Commission deadline for a decision on the UPM/Sappi joint venture (Case M.12270). See #128
Wed 30 December: EUDR applies to large and medium operators, and to micro and small operators for products the EU Timber Regulation covered
Mon 1 February 2027: GHG Protocol request for information on forest carbon accounting closes. See #132
Wed 30 June 2027: EUDR applies to other natural persons and micro or small operators established by 31 December 2024
π‘ One Thing to Try This Week
Find your EUDR date in ten minutes.
Your date depends on your size, your products and your role. Here is a quick way to find it.
Write down what you place on the EU market. Logs, firewood, chips, sawn timber, panels, pulp or paper?
Check your size. Large or medium? Your date is 30 December 2026.
Micro, small or a private person, with products the EUTR covered? Your date is also 30 December 2026.
Micro, small or a private person, with other products? Your date is 30 June 2027, if established as such by 31 December 2024.
Selling wood you grew and harvested yourself? Read Article 4a on the simplified declaration. Then book the matching training.
This is a guide, not legal advice. The regulation's text decides. Your national authority can confirm your role. Source: EUR-Lex β Regulation (EU) 2025/2650 | European Commission β EUDR Information System trainings
π The Forestry Communication Playbook
"Is your forest on the deforestation list?"
A neighbour may ask after an EUDR headline. Or a buyer, or a local reporter. The calm answer explains what the rule asks. Was the forest cleared after 2020? Was the wood cut legally? Good records answer both. Saying that in one breath takes practice.
Part 1 covers the questions that arrive without warning.
π The Forest-Investment Dictionary
Due diligence is the same word in a fund and in a forest.
Investors run due diligence before they buy. The EUDR now asks wood buyers to run it too. Same word, two worlds, one set of records.
I wrote the Forest-Investment Dictionary with Danish forest economist Anders Tærø Nielsen. It has 151 pages, 11 chapters, 14 printable tools, and 3 calculators. Investors learn to read a forest. Foresters learn to read a term sheet.
When the market turns, the people who can read the numbers make the better calls. The price is β¬99. Get yours below.
π The Organization β Playbook Part 3
Nine weeks to the EUDR. Who files the statements?
Part 3 is about who in your organisation does that work. And whether they have the time.
I wrote The Organization, Part 3 of the Playbook. It has 165 pages, 10 chapters, 10 printable tools, and a survey. It shows what it takes to be heard, and who does the work.
Almost nobody in European forestry publishes what communication costs. The survey inside starts the count. The price is β¬149. Get yours below.
π€ ForestryBriefing
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Until Tuesday!
Wish you all the best: Peter
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