Hello,
Most pellet wood comes from sawmill leftovers. This autumn, two German numbers point in different directions. The sawmill industry reports lower production. Pellet makers report a strong quarter.
Plus three forest tech stories, softwood figures from Dublin, and carbon credits from wooden piles.
Here's what's moving European forestry this week:
🔍 The Big Story
🇩🇪 🇦🇹 Less sawing, more pellets
What happened
On 3 November, the German Pellet Institute (DEPI) published third-quarter figures. They cover July to September.
Pellet output: 1,140,000 tonnes in the quarter.
Second quarter of 2026: 1,034,000 tonnes.
Third quarter of 2025: 1,036,000 tonnes.
That is about 10% more than both. The two comparisons are my calculation from DEPI and DEPV figures.
What the pellets were made from
Sawmill residues: 91.3%
Roundwood: 8.7%
Softwood: 97.4% of all wood used
The roundwood share was 6.9% in the second quarter. So it rose by 1.8 percentage points in one quarter.
DEPI also reports on quality and sales. 98.3% of output was ENplus A1, the top grade for home heating. 90% stayed in Germany.
Meanwhile, at the sawmills
On 3 November, the German sawmill association DeSH published a figure of its own. From January to August, production was just under 9% below last year. DeSH called last year's level already very weak. The release does not say which products it counts.
So the two numbers point in different directions. They also cover different months. DEPI says its figure reflects the expected seasonal pattern and the industry's development. Neither release compares the two.
Across the border
On 3 November, the Lower Austria Chamber of Agriculture published its November timber market report.
Sawlogs: sawmills need little wood. Demand for roundwood is subdued.
Spruce: the price of the main spruce grade slipped a little.
Industrial softwood: demand is high and prices stay attractive.
Energy wood: demand is good and prices are stable.
The chamber gives its own reason for the industrial wood demand. Sawmills cut less. So sawmill by-products are missing.
Its price table shows the levels. Prices are without VAT, at the forest road unless noted:
Spruce sawlogs, class B, 2b: €115–122 per solid cubic metre. Fir is €10 lower. The top price needs 200 cubic metres or more.
Softwood fibre wood: from €90 per bone-dry tonne.
Grinding wood: from €95 per bone-dry tonne.
Forest chips, under 30% water: from €150–190 per bone-dry tonne, delivered to the plant.
A bone-dry tonne is a tonne of wood with the water taken out. Here it is measured with bark. Sawlogs are measured without bark.
What the numbers do not say
DEPI counts pellets. DeSH reports industry production, with no product breakdown.
The DeSH figure covers January to August. The DEPI figure covers July to September.
One quarter is not a trend.
The Lower Austria prices are for one federal state. Fibre and grinding wood are minimum prices.
DEPI points to the season and the industry's development. It gives no more detail.
Why this matters
As reported in #130, German A1 wood chips cost about 13% more in the third quarter than in the second. In #132, Austria's chamber saw lively demand for industrial roundwood. Today's figures add the pellet side.
My read, and it is a read rather than a finding: The bottom of the log pile is still finding buyers. In Lower Austria, sawlog demand is subdued. Industrial and energy wood have the demand. Thinnings produce these grades.
What this means for you
If you own forest in Lower Austria: The chamber reports demand for industrial and energy wood. My advice: ask your buyer for prices on every grade before you cut.
If you plan a thinning: Check the fibre wood price in your region first. Then do the sums.
If you run a sawmill: The chamber reports that by-products are missing in Lower Austria. My advice: check when your residue contracts renew.
If you invest: Sawlog prices tell half the story. Ask what share of revenue comes from other grades. (I can help you read those numbers, see below.)
If you speak for forestry: In Germany, 91.3% of pellet wood was sawmill residue last quarter. Use that when someone asks about burning wood. Sources: DEPI — Pelletversorgung in Deutschland gut: der Winter kann kommen (3 Nov 2026, German) | DEPI — Deutsche Pelletproduktion steigt im 2. Quartal 2026 weiter an (German) | DEPV — Pelletproduktion im 3. Quartal weiter auf sehr hohem Niveau (2025, German) | DeSH — Wohnungsbau als politische Schlüsselaufgabe (3 Nov 2026, German) | LK Niederösterreich — NÖ Holzmarkt November 2026 (3 Nov 2026, German) | prior ForestryBrief coverage: EFP #130, EFP #132
📊 Quick Hits
1. 🇸🇪 🇫🇮 🇩🇪 Forest tech: a saw line that finds rot, AI planners, and a robot
Three announcements from the first week of November.
Derome, Sweden (5 November). Derome launched a new log grade. It is called "sågbar massaved", or sawable pulpwood.
It is for spruce with firm rot. Until now, that wood went to the pulpwood pile.
AI image processing in Derome's new saw line finds the rot.
Short rotten parts are cut out. The sound wood can be finger-jointed.
Derome's pilot found a potential of up to 4% of final-felling volume. That is an average.
It applies only on Derome's own harvests. Harvester operators were trained to tell firm rot from soft.
Derome ran a pilot first. It cites a Skogforsk and Biometria study on the cost of rot. That study puts the loss at SEK 800 million to 1.1 billion a year. It counts spruce sawlogs downgraded at final felling.
Finnos, Finland (4–5 November). Finnos makes measuring systems for sawmills. At Finland's sawmill industry days, it showed AI agents that plan production.
The agents read the log yard, saw line, dryers and order book together.
A new order or a dryer fault triggers new plan options.
A person picks the plan. "Humans make the decisions," says CEO Jere Heikkinen. The quote is translated from Swedish.
Finnos says two Finnish sawmills use it. Mustola Timber is one.
HAWK, Germany (5 November). HAWK is a university of applied sciences. Its robotics lab in Göttingen works on a project called RoboForest.
The goal is highly automated tending of young forest stands.
The robot is called "Scorpion". NDR, the regional broadcaster, reported on it on 5 November.
Prof. Thomas Linkugel leads the lab.
Why it matters: All three aim at the same thing. More value from the wood, or less hand work per hectare.
The context: These are company and university announcements. Derome's 4% is a potential from its own pilot. HAWK's robot is a research project. In #132, a Swedish drone thinning study was a model, not a field result.
The takeaway: If you sell rot-damaged spruce in Derome's area, ask about the new grade. Everyone else: ask your buyer what they do with firm rot. Sources: Derome — Röta blir sågbar i Deromes nya sortiment (5 Nov 2026, Swedish) | Skogforsk — Nationell kartläggning av förekomsten av röta i gran (PDF, Swedish) | Finnos — Finnos presenterar ett AI-styrt sågverk (6 Nov 2026, Swedish) | HAWK — Roboter für den Wald der Zukunft (5 Nov 2026, German) | NDR — Roboter "Scorpion" soll junge Bäume im Wald schützen (5 Nov 2026, German) | hat tip: Boreal Tech Brief #071
2. 🇮🇪 🇪🇺 Dublin: what the softwood trade counted
The 74th International Softwood Conference met in Malahide, near Dublin, on 28 and 29 October. The sawmill body EOS published its release on 3 November.
About 300 participants from 25 countries attended.
Softwood production in EOS member countries fell 10% between 2021 and 2023.
It then stayed stable until 2025, the release says.
UK imports of sawn softwood fell 5% in the first half of 2026.
The Middle East and North Africa imported 9.2 million m³ of sawn wood in 2025.
Why it matters: These are the trade's own counts of the past years. They frame this week's German and Austrian numbers.
The context: The speakers also gave projections for 2026 and later. I leave forecasts out here. You can read them in the release.
The takeaway: EOS member countries sawed less softwood in 2025 than in 2021. Plan with that level in mind, not the peak. The next conference is in Gothenburg, 19–21 October 2027. Sources: EOS — International Softwood Conference 2026 press release (3 Nov 2026)
3. 🇳🇱 🇧🇪 Wooden piles under buildings earn 3,249 carbon credits
A Dutch company, Underground Forest, has issued carbon removal credits under the Rainbow Standard. The registry dates the issuance 4 November.
3,249 credits were issued. One credit stands for one tonne of CO₂.
The carbon sits in wooden foundation piles under 19 buildings.
The piles stand below the groundwater table. The project says wood kept wet and without oxygen does not rot.
The wood comes from PEFC-certified forests in the Belgian Ardennes.
Normec Verifavia verified the tonnes.
Why it matters: Here the credit comes from a wood product. It does not come from a standing forest. The trees were harvested and used.
The context: In #137, I explained the Core Carbon Principles (CCP). ICVCM lists Rainbow's programme as CCP-eligible. That is a label for the programme. It is not a label on these credits. The method for building materials is still under assessment.
The takeaway: For forest owners, this is context, not a price signal. But note the idea. Long-lived wood products can carry a carbon value too. Sources: Carbon Herald — report of 9 Nov 2026 | Rainbow Registry — project RIV-2026-PROJ-184 | Project design document | Verification report | ICVCM — Rainbow confirmed as CCP-eligible
📅 The Weeks Ahead
Today, Thu 12 Nov: Commission EUDR Information System training for micro and small primary operators, 14:00 CET | ITTC 62 ends — Yokohama (ITTO) | Puupäivä, day two — Helsinki (Puuinfo) | ATIBT and UICCB workshop on assessing EUDR deforestation risk with WHISP and forest management documents
November: Commission EUDR Information System trainings, all at 14:00 CET. Upstream operators: 17 and 24 November. Micro and small primary operators: 19 and 26 November. Register here
Until Fri 13 Nov: FIMMA + Maderalia — Valencia
Until Fri 20 Nov: COP31 UN Climate Change Conference — Antalya, Türkiye
Wed 18 Nov: FOREST EUROPE webinar on forest-based education, 12:00–13:00 CET — online
Wed–Thu 18–19 Nov: German Timber Congress 2026 (DeSH) — Wiesbaden | European Bioenergy Future (Bioenergy Europe) — Brussels
Thu 19 Nov: Luke's October roundwood trade statistics (Finland) | European Bioeconomy Conference 2026 — Brussels
Tue 24 Nov: Expected latest date for Stora Enso's information brochure on Bergslagets Skogar. See #135
Wed 25 Nov: Forest Bioeconomy Investment Accelerator (FBIA) 2026 event — EIB, Brussels (by invitation)
Fri 27 Nov: Timber and Circular Economy CPD — online and free (PEFC via TDUK)
Mon 30 Nov: Södra's temporary birch premium: last day to sign. See #126 | Södra's browsing-damage challenge closes
Tue 1 Dec: SMURF Carbon Standard consultation closes, 17:00 CET
Wed 2 Dec: FOREST Partnership first joint call: pre-proposals due, 13:00 CET (up to €40 million)
Wed–Fri 2–4 Dec: 30th International Wood Construction Forum (IHF) — Innsbruck
Thu 10 Dec: ThinkForest: balancing biodiversity conservation and wood production — Brussels. The Integrate Network's 10-year celebration follows
Tue 15 Dec: Expected date of Stora Enso's extraordinary general meeting on the Bergslagets Skogar demerger — Helsinki
Wed 30 Dec: EUDR applies to large and medium operators, and to micro and small operators for products the EU Timber Regulation covered
Thu 31 Dec: Mercer's target for completing its recapitalization (by the end of 2026). See #137
Fri 8 Jan 2027: 📌 Provisional Commission deadline in the UPM/Sappi joint venture case (M.12270). See the register. Background in #128
Mon 1 Feb 2027: GHG Protocol request for information on forest carbon accounting closes. See #132
Mon 1 Mar 2027: Holmen's expected date for the Kroksjön change. See #137
Wed 31 Mar 2027: Planned completion of the Bergslagets Skogar demerger (on or about, subject to approvals)
Wed 30 Jun 2027: EUDR applies to other natural persons and micro or small operators established by 31 December 2024. Products the EU Timber Regulation covered are excluded from this later date
Thu 1 Jul 2027: Most VCS Version 5 rules take effect (Verra). See #136
Tue–Thu 19–21 Oct 2027: International Softwood Conference — Gothenburg. See Quick Hit 2
💡 One Thing to Try This Week
Find out where your lowest grade goes.
You know your sawlog price. Do you know who buys the rest? This week's reports show demand for it in Lower Austria.
Take the measurement note from your last harvest.
Mark every line that is not a sawlog. Pulpwood, fibre wood, energy wood, chips.
Add up their share of the volume and of the income.
Ask your buyer one question: where did that wood go?
Ask for a second price from one other buyer of that grade.
Then you know both ends of your log pile.
🎧 In case you missed it: the Forest Invest Podcast
I was a guest on Shauna Matkovich's Forest Invest Podcast, episode 102. We talked about Europe's forest industry and its investment climate. → Listen to "A Synopsis of the European Forest Industry and Investment Climate"
📖 The Forestry Communication Playbook
"Why do you burn good wood?"
A neighbour may ask when the pellet truck arrives. Or a council member, or a local reporter. The calm answer starts with a number. In Germany, 91.3% of pellet wood was sawmill residue last quarter. Saying that without sounding defensive takes practice.
Part 1 covers the questions that arrive without warning.
📗 The Forest-Investment Dictionary
A forest earns from more than one grade.
Sawlogs get the attention. This week, the lower grades had the demand in Lower Austria. Investors call that revenue mix. Foresters call it selling the whole tree.
I wrote the Forest-Investment Dictionary with Danish forest economist Anders Tærø Nielsen. It has 151 pages, 11 chapters, 14 printable tools, and 3 calculators. Investors learn to read a forest. Foresters learn to read a term sheet.
When the market turns, the people who can read the numbers make the better calls. The price is €99. Get yours below.
📘 The Organization — Playbook Part 3
I wrote The Organization, Part 3 of the Playbook. It has 165 pages, 10 chapters, 10 printable tools, and a survey. It shows what it takes to be heard, and who does the work.
Almost nobody in European forestry publishes what communication costs. The survey inside starts the count. The price is €149. Get yours below.
🤝 ForestryBriefing
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Until Tuesday!
Wish you all the best: Peter
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