European Forestry Pulse #73 🌲

Hello,

Last week we showed you that Europe's forests are growing faster than they're being cut. Today: a different kind of imbalance.

Europe imported 19% more logs in January. It paid 14% less for them.

At the same time, Navigator is raising paper prices up to 7%. Finnish kraft pulp exports collapsed 47%.

Raw material is flooding in cheap. Processed products cost more. The gap between what Europe buys and what Europe sells is widening.

Here's what's moving European forestry this week:

Three numbers tell the story.

EU log imports: up 19%. Lesprom reports that January 2026 customs data shows a sharp rise in log volumes entering the EU. More wood is crossing European borders than at any point in recent months.

Log prices: down 14%. The price per unit of those imports fell hard. Europe is getting more wood for less money. That sounds like good news. It isn't — not for everyone.

Finnish kraft pulp exports: down 47%. Lesprom reported on March 30 that Finland's bleached kraft pulp shipments nearly halved in January, based on Finnish Customs data. Prices slipped 0.2%. Volume collapsed.

Two forces are pulling in opposite directions.

On the raw material side, supply is loose. Storm salvage from Sweden's Johannes damage (10.9 million m³) is still entering markets. Global demand for logs is soft. China's imports crashed 29% in February (EFP #71). Sellers need buyers. Prices fall.

On the processed side, costs are rising. The Navigator Company — Portugal's largest pulp and paper producer — announced a 4–7% price increase on uncoated woodfree (UWF) papers across Europe. Entry-level grades face the highest increase. Energy and raw material costs are the stated drivers.

The scissors are opening. Raw material gets cheaper. Finished products get more expensive. The gap in the middle is where processing margins live.

Sawmills and processors win. Cheaper log inputs plus stable or rising product prices means wider margins. If you run a mill, this is the best cost environment in over a year.

Forest owners lose — for now. Log prices are down. If you sell stumpage, the market is paying less per cubic metre. The oversupply from storm salvage and weak Asian demand is pressing on prices.

Traders and importers win. More volume at lower prices means better buying conditions. But only if end-market demand holds.

This split won't last forever. Storm salvage volumes will be absorbed. Asian demand will recover — or it won't, and European markets will have to absorb the excess. Navigator's price increase signals that processors expect demand to hold.

The question is timing. How long do the scissors stay open? And what happens when they close?

If you sell logs: The market is soft. Consider timing. Storm salvage will take months to clear. Prices may stay under pressure through Q2.

If you run a mill: Lock in your raw material supply at current prices. This margin window won't last.

If you invest in forestry: The value-add story is clear. Owning forests is still nice. Processing the wood is where the margin caught up right now. Sources: Lesprom — Imports of logs to EU expand 19% in January | Lesprom — Exports of bleached kraft pulp from Finland contract 47% in January | Lesprom — The Navigator Company announces 4–7% price increase on UWF papers in Europe

Swedish forest owners filed about 59,600 final felling notifications in 2025. That covers roughly 242,000 hectares. It's 6% more than 2024 and in line with 2023.

Southern and Northern Norrland showed the strongest increases. Storm Johannes salvage is a clear driver. But one signal stands out: applications for montane forest felling fell by almost half. Forest owners are pulling back from sensitive high-altitude areas.

Why it matters: Sweden is Europe's largest wood exporter. When Swedish felling rises 6%, that's more supply entering Nordic and European markets. Combined with the log price drop in the Big Story, this points to a well-supplied market through 2026.

The takeaway: If you compete in Nordic timber markets, expect volume. If you buy from Sweden, conditions favour the buyer right now. Source: Skogsstyrelsen — Avverkningsanmälningar 2025 | Data tables (PxWeb)

Finland's wood pellet production fell to about 290,000 tonnes in 2025. That's down 10% from 2024. It follows a 9% drop the year before. Two straight years of decline.

Meanwhile, imports hit 203,000 tonnes. Estonia supplies more than half — about 103,000 tonnes. Sweden (27,000 t) and Lithuania (19,000 t) follow. Finland is now a net pellet importer.

Why it matters: The Baltic supply chain is deepening. Estonian wood residues are feeding Finnish energy demand. That's a structural shift, not a blip. It matters for everyone who competes for forest residues in the Baltic region.

The takeaway: If you produce pellets or sell forest residues in the Baltics, Finnish demand is growing. If you buy pellets in Finland, your supply chain now depends on cross-border flows. Source: Luke Finland — Wood Pellets 2025

Norske Skog is selling its Saugbrugs properties in Halden, Norway for NOK 720 million (about $74 million). The buyer is a Norwegian government agency. The site needs 25–30 years of environmental cleanup. Handover is set for 2028.

Why it matters: This is a former paper mill site being returned to public hands for remediation. It signals the long tail of Europe's paper industry restructuring. Old industrial forestry sites carry environmental liabilities that take decades to resolve.

The takeaway: If you work in forest industry real estate, this is a pricing reference point. Industrial forestry sites with cleanup obligations sell at steep discounts. The environmental liability defines the value. Source: Norske Skog — Saugbrugs Sale (Euronext notice) | Lesprom — Norske Skog to sell Saugbrugs properties for NOK 720 million

FOREST EUROPE announced a monthly webinar series on the State of Europe's Forests 2025 report. First session: April 21 — Forest Health and Vitality. Further sessions cover forest resources and carbon (May 22), bioeconomy (June 17), biodiversity (September 22), and green jobs (October 22).

Meanwhile, the European Commission's EUDR simplification review is due by April 30. Industry briefings confirm the Commission does not plan to reopen the core regulation text. The April package focuses on administrative burden: guidance updates, FAQ revisions, Annex I tweaks, and IT system improvements. Core due diligence obligations stay.

Why it matters: The SoEF webinars turn a 300-page report into usable intelligence sessions. The EUDR update sets expectations: compliance architecture stays. Build your systems now.

The takeaway: Register for the April 21 webinar. And don't wait for the EUDR April report to start building your due diligence statement workflow. The deadlines aren't moving. Sources: FOREST EUROPE Newsletter 2/2026 — SoEF 2025 Webinar Series | Stibbe — The Amended EUDR: What Has Changed

Ten chapters. Fifteen tools. €29.

Today's Big Story is a communication story too. Log imports are up 19%. Prices are down 14%. And yet Navigator is raising paper prices. If that sounds confusing to your stakeholders, imagine explaining it to a journalist.

Chapter 3 of the Playbook gives you the framework for turning complex market signals into clear messages. Chapter 8 gives you the tools to deliver them.

Check what your country imports — and what it pays.

Eurostat publishes monthly trade data for wood products. It's free. It takes ten minutes.

If the answer is "more volume, lower price" — your country's experience matches the EU average. If not, your market is doing something different. That's worth understanding.

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Until Thursday!

Wish you all the best: Peter

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