European Forestry Pulse #69 🌲

Hello,

Forestry balances two things society needs. Living forests that clean air, store carbon, and protect water. And harvested wood — timber, paper, energy — that keeps the economy running.

You cannot have one without the other.

This week, the living side of the scale delivered some rare good news.

Here's what's moving European forestry this week:

For the first time in seven years, German forests absorbed more CO₂ than they released.

The Federal Environment Agency (UBA) confirmed it on March 16 (yesteday). Germany's forests captured almost 20 million tonnes of CO₂ more than they emitted in 2025.

That matters. A lot.

Between 2018 and 2023, German forests took a beating. Droughts. Bark beetle outbreaks. Storms. Wildfires. The damage was so severe that forests flipped from carbon sink to carbon source. Trees were dying faster than they could grow.

The 2024 Federal Forest Inventory made it official. Germany's forests — for the first time since records began — were net emitters of CO₂.

Now the trend has reversed. The forests recovered enough in 2025 to absorb more carbon than they lost.

Germany has 11.4 million hectares of forest. That's the fourth-largest forest area in the EU. When German forests emit carbon instead of storing it, the whole EU misses its climate targets.

The German climate law requires the land use sector to become a net carbon sink of minus 25 million tonnes by 2030. With forests now absorbing 20 million tonnes, that target looks possible again.

But there's a catch. The wider land use sector — forests plus soils plus peatlands — still emits more than it absorbs. Drained peatlands remain the biggest problem. The Thünen Institute says rewetting peatlands is the key to fixing this.

Environment minister Carsten Schneider was cautious. "This positive trend is by no means a foregone conclusion and remains highly dependent on the weather," he said.

He's right. One bad drought year could flip the balance again.

This story is the seesaw in action. Foresters manage a balance between living forests and harvested wood. Both sides matter. Both are essential.

When drought and beetles destroyed millions of trees, the living side collapsed. Carbon storage failed. Ecosystem services failed. And the timber side took a hit too — salvage wood flooded markets and crashed prices.

Recovery means both sides of the scale work again. Standing forests store carbon. Managed forests produce timber. The seesaw is back in balance.

For now.

If you manage forests in Central Europe: This is your proof of concept. Forests recover. Management works. Use this data in your next stakeholder meeting.

If you develop forest carbon projects: German forests just demonstrated that forest carbon is real, measurable, and recoverable. The EU Carbon Removals Certification Framework needs exactly this kind of evidence.

If you work in policy: The UBA data shows forests can deliver on climate targets — but only if conditions allow it. One drought year changes everything. Adaptation investment is not optional. Sources: Clean Energy Wire — German forests back as carbon sink | UBA — Federal Environment Agency | UBA Press Release — Treibhausgasdaten 2025

Last week's ForestryBrief Professional #9 dug deep into the transatlantic timber trade — tariffs, trade flows, and why the numbers don't translate between continents. We built three free tools to fix that:

→ Price Converter — EUR/USD/CAD with volume units. No more guessing what $491 MBF means in €/m³.

→ Tariff Calculator — Estimate landed costs under current US duty regimes. Section 232, Canadian duties, the lot.

→ Unit Converter — Board feet, cubic metres, tonnes, cords — all in one place.

Free. Built for anyone who trades timber across the Atlantic.

The Trump administration launched new Section 301 investigations on March 13. The probes target industrial overcapacity and forced-labor goods across multiple countries. The temporary 10% global tariffs under Section 122 expire in mid-July.

Why it matters: These probes signal what replaces the current tariff structure. If new Section 301 tariffs hit wood products or upstream materials, European exporters to the US face a changed landscape. Our Transatlantic tools above can help you model the impact.

The takeaway: If you export to the US or compete in US-adjacent markets, track these probes. July is your planning horizon. Source: Lesprom — Trump Administration Opens Tariff Probes into Industrial Overcapacity

SCA announced a price increase of €100 per tonne on all kraftliner grades. Effective April 1, 2026. Applies across all European markets.

Why it matters: Kraftliner is the backbone of corrugated packaging. A €100/tonne increase is significant. It signals that producers see enough demand to push prices — or that costs force their hand.

The takeaway: If you buy packaging materials or sell pulpwood to kraftliner mills, this price move affects your margins within weeks. Source: SCA — Kraftliner Price Increase, €100/tonne

FSC International confirmed on March 10 that it has started revising Sweden's National Forest Stewardship Standard. Three working groups will focus on High Conservation Values, Indigenous consultation, and responsible forest management.

Why it matters: Sweden holds more FSC-certified forest than almost any country in Europe. How this standard is written affects millions of hectares. FSC Sweden's Forest and Standard Manager Henrik von Stedingk said the revision will improve clarity and trust.

The context: Swedish forestry faces growing pressure from NGO campaigns. Nestlé and Zalando recently reviewed their Nordic supplier relationships. A revised standard could strengthen — or complicate — Sweden's position.

The takeaway: If you hold FSC certificates in Sweden or source FSC-certified Nordic wood, follow this revision closely. Source: FSC International — FSC Advances Work to Strengthen Sweden's National Forest Stewardship Standard

Latvia's largest plywood producer is expanding in Finland. Latvijas Finieris will invest €15 million in its Sastamala plant. The upgrade includes a new peeling line and AI-powered quality technology. Operations start early 2027.

Why it matters: A Latvian company investing in Finland — not Latvia — tells you something about where the growth is. Finland offers stable fibre supply and advanced infrastructure. This is capital following conditions, not flags.

The takeaway: Watch where forest industry investment flows. It follows raw material security and regulatory stability. Source: Lesprom — Latvijas Finieris Invests €15 Million in Finnish Plant Expansion | Latvijas Finieris — Expansion in Sastamala

Check your country's forest carbon balance.

Germany just flipped from source to sink. What about your country?

Ten minutes:

If your forests are still a net sink — good. That's the baseline to protect. If they've weakened or flipped — that's the trend to watch. Either way, you now know where your country stands.

Policy decisions follow these numbers. Your forest management does too.

A new intelligence series from ForestryBrief Professional. Starts this Friday.

When oil prices spike, harvesting costs rise. When construction slows, sawnwood demand drops. When container shipping rates double, your export margins vanish.

That's upstream hitting forestry.

But it works the other way too. When a bark beetle outbreak floods the market with salvage wood, sawmill margins collapse. When EUDR raises compliance costs, downstream buyers rethink their supply chains. When forests stop storing carbon, entire countries miss their climate targets.

European forestry doesn't sit at the end of a chain. It sits at the centre of a web — connected to energy, construction, shipping, finance, geopolitics, climate, and regulation. Shocks travel in both directions. Upstream into your forest. Downstream into every industry that depends on what your forest produces.

But nobody maps these connections for forestry. Until now.

The Butterfly Effect is a 15-issue intelligence series as planned currently. Each issue traces one sector — energy, construction, trade, finance, climate, regulation — and shows exactly how it connects to European forestry. Upstream and downstream. With verified data. Named sources. Specific numbers.

Part 0 drops this Friday: "How European Forestry Actually Works."

Before we trace the cascades, we need to show you the system itself. The living forest / dead forest balance. The supply chain. The money flows. The policy levers. The spider at the centre of the web.

Part 0 is the foundation. Plain English. No jargon. Whether you've worked in forestry for 30 years or you're an investor seeing this sector for the first time — this is where it starts.

Free for all ForestryBrief subscribers.

The brief is free. The briefing is not.

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Until Thursday!

Wish you all the best: Peter

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P.S. Germany's forests absorbed 20 million tonnes more CO₂ than they released last year. After seven years as a net emitter. The living forest is back. But minister Schneider says it depends on the weather. One drought year could reverse everything. What's your country's forest carbon balance? Hit reply — I read every message personally.

P. P. S. Know a forest professional who’s drowning in EUDR complexity or missing out on timber market shifts? Forward this email to them!

Shauna Matkovich's Forest Invest Podcast is one of the best resources for understanding where forest finance is heading. If you are interested in Forest Investments, start there.

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