ForestryBrief Professional #9 🌳💰

Hello,

Three emails landed in my inbox the same week a while back.

The first came from a North American contractor. He wanted to know what European forestry workers earn per cubic metre. I sent him a number in euros. He wrote back confused. He works in board feet and day rates. My number meant nothing to him.

The second came from a European fund manager. She needed Canadian stumpage prices to compare with Finnish forestland. I pulled the data. Canadian stumpage is quoted per cubic metre — but on Crown land, not private. The tax system is different. The definition of "forest" is different. The numbers don't translate.

The third came from a British timber buyer. He asked whether Canadian lumber headed for Europe would crash Nordic prices. Good question. Nobody has published that analysis. Because nobody sits in both worlds at once.

I've spent 25 years translating between languages: Hungarian, German, English. You'd think translating between forestry worlds would be easier. Same trees. Same wood. Same planet.

It isn't. And it's about to matter more than ever.

Here's why.

The United States now runs three overlapping tariff systems on imported wood. If you trade timber across the Atlantic, you need to understand all three.

Layer 1: Section 232. On October 14, 2025, the US imposed a 10% tariff on all softwood lumber imports. For the EU and Japan, the combined rate is capped at 15%. For the UK, the cap is 10% total, including normal duties. Canada gets no exemption. The 10% stacks on top of existing duties. (White House Proclamation, Sep 29, 2025 | KPMG Analysis)

Layer 2: Canadian softwood duties. The Sixth Administrative Review hit Canadian producers hard. The numbers are brutal:

Read that again. Canfor pays nearly 58 cents in tariffs for every dollar of lumber it ships to the US. The average Canadian producer pays roughly 45%. (BC Government — Softwood Lumber Trade Dispute | Global Affairs Canada)

Layer 3: Section 122. On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court struck down all IEEPA-based tariffs. Within hours, the White House replaced them with a 10% global surcharge under Section 122. But products already covered by Section 232 — including lumber — are exempt. So this layer barely touches timber. It expires around July 24, 2026 (Covington & Burling — IEEPA Replacement Analysis | Perkins Coie)

What this means for you: European softwood enters the US at a maximum 15% tariff. Canadian softwood enters at 45–58%. That's not a gap. That's a moat. And European producers are already swimming across it.

EU softwood lumber exports to the US surged roughly 32% in 2025. Shipments reached an estimated 4.6 million m³. In the first half of 2025 alone, EU sawn softwood exports to the US hit €620 million — up 19%. The US now takes over 16% of all extra-EU sawn softwood exports. It's the biggest single destination outside Europe. (Fastmarkets — European Softwood Market | Global Wood Markets Info)

One more thing. Hardwood is not yet covered by Section 232. The Commerce Secretary must deliver a report by October 1, 2026. After that, more tariffs could follow. Watch that date.

On the other side of the Atlantic, Canada's forest industry is bleeding.

This is not a downturn. This is structural collapse.

Canfor Corporation reported a Q4 2025 net loss of C$390.5 million. Total impairment charges: C$320.4 million. That includes C$213.9 million written off against its European lumber operations (Vida AB in Sweden — surging log costs) and C$106.5 million in pulp and paper. Canfor permanently closed its Vanderhoof Plateau and Fort St. John sawmills in BC. Roughly 500 employees lost their jobs. Gone: 670 million board feet of annual capacity. (Canfor Q4 2025 Results | CBC — Canfor Closures)

West Fraser posted a US$751 million Q4 loss. It indefinitely shut its High Level, Alberta OSB mill — 860 million square feet of capacity, 190 jobs. Combined with its already-idled Cordele, Georgia line, West Fraser removed 1.3 billion square feet of panel capacity. Its 100 Mile House, BC sawmill closed too. Another 165 jobs gone. (West Fraser — OSB Capacity Reduction | CBC — BC Mill Closures)

Mercer International lost US$497.9 million in 2025. Its stock traded at $1.72 in early March — a market cap of roughly $115 million. But there's a bright spot. Mercer's mass timber order book doubled to $163 million. Revenue from mass timber should exceed $120 million in 2026. Canada's future may not be in commodity lumber. (Mercer International — Q4 2025 Results)

Domtar permanently closed its Crofton, BC pulp mill. 350 employees. 380,000 tonnes of annual capacity. It also curtailed lumber production across Quebec, Ontario, and US facilities in Q1 2026. (CBC — Domtar Crofton Closure | Domtar — Q1 Curtailment)

Across Canada, roughly 20 or more sawmills have permanently closed since 2023. Most were in British Columbia. Since 2005, at least 44 BC mills have shut for good. The province that once dominated global softwood supply has lost an estimated 35% of its sawmilling capacity.

On January 1, 2026, Canada's federal carbon price rose to C$110 per tonne — up from C$80 in 2024 under the scheduled annual increases. Mills that survived the tariffs now face higher energy costs too.

The Canadian government responded with a $500 million forest sector retooling fund. Applications opened February 25, 2026. First money out the door: C$2.8 million across seven projects in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. That's 0.6% of the fund — for an industry losing billions per quarter. (Canada.ca — $500M Forest Sector Retooling Fund)

Meanwhile, Forisk Consulting's Q1 2026 report summed up Q4 2025 in one line: the industry spent the quarter in survival mode. Curtailments and downtime were widespread. North American softwood production fell nearly 4% quarter-over-quarter. US South sawmills alone cut 1.2 billion board feet of capacity in 2025. Forisk expects another 1.3 billion board feet to disappear in 2026 — the biggest annual drop since 2010. (Forisk — Q1 2026 Research Quarterly | Forisk — February 2026 Mill Update)

Here's the part nobody writes about.

These two forestry worlds — Europe and North America — are about to collide. Trade is crossing the Atlantic in both directions. Investment capital is looking for yield on either shore. Workers are disappearing on both sides.

And the two worlds don't speak the same language. Not literally. Structurally.

The units don't match. A European forest owner quotes prices in €/m³ — specifically per Festmeter, solid cubic metre under bark. A Canadian quotes C$ per thousand board feet (mfbm), nominal measure. Converting between them requires an exchange rate, a volume conversion factor, a moisture content adjustment, and a bark deduction. Nobody publishes a clean comparison table. So investors on each side guess. Or worse — they compare numbers that aren't comparable.

The scale doesn't match. A European "large harvesting operation" covers 20 hectares of selective thinning. A Canadian "small job" is a 40-hectare clearcut done in a single shift. A "large European forest owner" manages 500 hectares. Weyerhaeuser — now merged with Rayonier/PotlatchDeltic into a 4.2-million-acre giant — manages a forest area larger than some EU member states. (Reuters — Rayonier/PotlatchDeltic Merger)

The word "sustainable" doesn't match. Under the EU Deforestation Regulation, harvesting a natural forest in Canada and replanting with the same native species counts as "forest degradation." Canada's government formally objected. They called EUDR's definition "not consistent with best practices for regeneration as applied in Canada." Under SFI — the largest single certification standard, covering 363 million acres — sustainable means something different than under FSC. And neither system gives you automatic EUDR compliance. (Natural Resources Canada — EUDR Position | AF&PA — EUDR as Trade Barrier)

The ownership model doesn't match. In Scandinavia, private forest owners sell standing trees at stumpage prices. In British Columbia, the Crown owns most of the timber. The province charges stumpage fees on public land. In the US South, private landowners dominate. Three completely different systems. Three different price signals. Zero direct comparability.

The benchmark doesn't match. The US has the NCREIF Timberland Index. It tracks institutional forest returns since 1987. Latest quarterly return: 1.59% in Q4 2025. Europe has nothing equivalent. No pan-European forest price index. No standardised return benchmark. We covered this gap in detail in Professional #8. (NCREIF Timberland Index | Forisk — 2025 Timberland Transactions Review)

Every one of these mismatches costs money. Every time a European investor misreads a Canadian stumpage report, that's a bad allocation decision. Every time a North American operator underestimates European assortment complexity, that's a failed market entry.

There is no Rosetta Stone for transatlantic forestry. There is no Rosetta Stone for transatlantic forestry. So we built the first pieces of one.

Three free tools — no registration, no paywall:

Transatlantic Price Converter — Convert between €/m³, USD/mfbm, and CAD/mfbm. Adjusts for exchange rates, nominal vs. actual dimensions, and bark deductions.

US Lumber Tariff Stacking Calculator — Calculate the total US import duty across Section 232, Canadian anti-dumping and countervailing duties, and processing fees. Select origin country and producer. See the full stack.

Forestry Unit Converter — Board feet, cubic metres, Festmeter, Raummeter, Schüttraummeter, cords, Hoppus feet, steres, and log scaling rules. 30+ units. One tool.

While we debate translations, wood is already moving.

British Columbia announced it will redirect roughly 10% of lumber exports — about 1 billion board feet — away from the US. Target markets: the UK, EU, and Middle East. A new forest trade office in London opened through Forestry Innovation Investment. First redirected shipments are expected by Q2 2026.

BC's Forests Minister Ravi Parmar didn't mince words. He told CBC: "We can no longer trust the United States." (CBC — BC Forest Trade Office in UK | Lesprom — Canada Diverts 10% of Exports)

But the reality check matters. In 2025, the US still absorbed roughly 87% of all Canadian lumber exports. Non-US markets received only about 13%. The 20-year average is closer to 20%. Canada talks diversification. Execution lags far behind. (Global Wood Markets Info — Canada at a Crossroads)

The UK is the obvious first target. No tariffs on Canadian softwood under the Canada-UK trade agreement. Total UK timber imports hit 9.1 million m³ in 2025 — down 2.2%, the lowest in roughly a decade. But prices rose: average imported softwood reached £289/m³, up from £256. Forecasts say softwood import volumes could rise 3.7% in 2026. The UK government wants 1.5 million new homes in five years. That's the window Canadian lumber will try to fill. (Timber Development UK — 2025 Import Data | Builders Merchants News — UK Timber Imports)

European producers aren't standing still either. Finnish softwood lumber exports jumped 24% in 2025 — up a full 1 million m³. Sweden's sawmills opened 2026 under margin pressure, squeezed between record log costs and flat product prices. Nordic exports to China are declining as Russia grabs market share. That wood needs to go somewhere. Increasingly, it's going west — to the US, where EU producers now enjoy a 30-point tariff advantage over Canada. (USDA on China softwood market | Global Wood Markets Info — Finnish Exports)

The picture is clear. Canadian wood is heading east. European wood is heading south and west. Both are looking for the same thing: buyers who will pay more than their shrinking domestic markets offer.

When those two flows meet, somebody wins. Somebody loses. The producers who understand both sides of the Atlantic will win. Everyone else loses margins they can't afford to lose.

There's one more wall being built. And it runs in the opposite direction.

The EU Deforestation Regulation takes effect December 30, 2026 for large operators. That's nine months from today. Small operators follow June 30, 2027. And on April 30, 2026 — barely weeks away — the European Commission must publish a simplification review. That review is the last major lobbying window before enforcement. (EU EUDR Amended Timeline | AF&PA — EUDR Trade Barrier Position)

North American exporters face a specific problem. EUDR requires GPS coordinates for every harvest plot. Species identification. Legal harvesting evidence. Proof of no deforestation or degradation.

The American Forest & Paper Association says 42% of US wood fiber used by pulp and paper mills comes from chips, residuals, and sawmill by-products. That fiber gets blended multiple times during production. It cannot be traced to individual forest plots. But the EUDR demands exactly that. (US Senate Letter — Blackburn/King)

A bipartisan group of 27 US Senators — led by Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) and Angus King (I-ME) — formally asked the US Trade Representative to engage the European Commission. AF&PA calls the EUDR a "non-tariff trade barrier" threatening over $3.5 billion in annual exports.

Think about the irony. The US built a tariff wall to keep foreign wood out. The EU built a regulatory wall to keep non-compliant wood out. North American exporters now face both walls. The ones who figure out EUDR compliance first get a decade-long advantage over those who don't.

Solutions are emerging. The American Hardwood Export Council launched "American Hardwood Assured" — an AI-based platform to verify deforestation-free US hardwood. ResourceWise's Forest Trackt automates GPS tracking for EUDR compliance. SCS Global Services offers add-on modules for existing FSC, SFI, and PEFC certificates.

But certification alone doesn't satisfy EUDR. That's a lesson many North American exporters haven't learned yet.

For centuries, the Silk Road made a small number of merchants wealthy. Not because they had the best goods. But because they understood both ends of the route.

They knew what Constantinople wanted. They knew what Xi'an had. They spoke the languages. They translated value between worlds that didn't understand each other.

The transatlantic forestry route is forming right now. Canadian wood heading east. European wood heading west. Carbon credits crossing in both directions. Investment capital looking for yield on either shore. Gresham House just closed €250 million for a cross-border forestry fund — Article 9, the highest EU sustainability classification. IKEA owns 55,000 hectares of forestland across five US states. Rayonier and PotlatchDeltic merged into a 4.2-million-acre colossus in January 2026. (Gresham House — International Forestry Strategy | Ingka Group — Forestland Acquisition)

The money is crossing the ocean. The wood is crossing the ocean. The regulations are colliding mid-ocean.

But information? Information moves at the speed of a fax machine. Nobody has mapped the route. Nobody translates between €/m³ and C$/mfbm. Between EUDR and SFI. Between family forests and Crown land. Between 20-hectare thinning blocks and 40-hectare clearcuts.

That's what this pillar is for. This is the first Transatlantic issue. There will be more. Because the collision has already started — and most people on both shores don't know it yet.

📋 Deep Dive Pillar — March 2026: The Butterfly Effect

Diesel prices spike in Rotterdam. A harvester operator retires in Thuringia. Brussels adds a compliance layer. A storm flattens 10 million m³ in Sweden.

None of these are forestry decisions. All of them land on the forest owner's balance sheet.

Then the shock passes through. A sawmill curtails in Bavaria. A panel factory raises prices in Poland. A housebuilder delays in London. A family pays more for a kitchen in Manchester.

Forestry sits in the middle of a chain it doesn't control. Disruptions flow in from labour markets, energy prices, regulation, and climate. They flow out through construction, packaging, furniture, and energy. Every link under stress. Nobody mapping the full picture.

Until now. The Butterfly Effect series starts next week

Sources: White House — Section 232 Proclamation, KPMG — Section 232 Analysis, BC Government — Softwood Lumber Dispute, Global Affairs Canada — Softwood Lumber, Covington — Section 122 Analysis, Perkins Coie — IEEPA Ruling, Fastmarkets — European Softwood Market, Global Wood Markets Info — EU Exporters in US, Canfor — Q4 2025 Results, CBC — Canfor Closures, West Fraser — OSB Capacity Reduction, CBC — BC Mill Closures, Mercer International — 2025 Results, CBC — Domtar Crofton Closure, Domtar — Q1 Curtailment, Canada.ca — $500M Retooling Fund, Forisk Consulting, Forisk — Feb 2026 Mill Update, Lesprom — Canada Diverts 10% of Exports, CBC — BC Forest Trade Office in UK, Global Wood Markets Info — Canada at a Crossroads, Timber Development UK — 2025 Import Data, Builders Merchants News — UK Timber Imports, Natural Resources Canada — EUDR Position, AF&PA — EUDR Position, US Senate — Blackburn/King Letter, NCREIF Timberland Index, Forisk — 2025 Timberland Transactions Review, Gresham House — International Forestry Strategy, Ingka Group — Forestland Acquisition, Reuters — Rayonier/PotlatchDeltic Merger.

European forestry needs better communication and smarter capital. We deliver both.

Intelligence: EUDR compliance, timber market analysis, carbon market monitoring, forest investment due diligence.

Communication: Content strategy, trade publication articles, stakeholder messaging, staff training. Three languages: EN | DE | HU.

The Forestry Communication Playbook: A complete guide to building your organisation's communication strategy. Coming soon.

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Until Thursday!

Wish you all the best: Peter

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P.S. Do you work on both sides of the Atlantic? Have you tried to compare European and North American forest data and hit a wall? Reply. I want your translation stories. The best ones might appear in the next Transatlantic issue.

P. P. S. Know a forest professional who’s drowning in EUDR complexity or missing out on timber market shifts? Forward this email to them!

Shauna Matkovich's Forest Invest Podcast is one of the best resources for understanding where forest finance is heading. If you are interested in Forest Investments, start there.

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