Hello,
It's half-time for 2026. The sawmill scoreboard is honest: cut more, or bleed. But look closer. Sweden is planting more. New forest credits are flowing. And France's last pulp group has a credible rescue plan on the table.
Here's what's moving European forestry this week:
🔍 The Big Story
Half-time report: Europe's sawmills told to cut deeper
What happened
The first half of 2026 started stable. It ended with a clear message from Central Europe's sawmills. Timber-Online's June market survey sums it up: production must fall further.
Fastmarkets' May report, published 3 July, shows why. Sawn timber prices stayed flat across Germany, France, and Benelux. Every tracked spruce grade was unchanged on the month. The UK was the small exception. Spruce sawfalling rose £5 to £320 per cubic metre.
Producers are responding with cuts. Fastmarkets names Södra and Vida in Sweden, and Stora Enso in Finland.
The newest example is concrete. Stora Enso will pause its Veitsiluoto sawmill in Kemi from early August. Restart is planned for early October. The mill cuts 200,000 m³ per year. All 56 employees face temporary layoff. The company told Fastmarkets the reason: "challenging market conditions, low consumer confidence, geopolitical uncertainty and high wood costs."
Germany tells the same story from the production side. Softwood sawn timber output fell again in Q1. That is the fourth year of decline in a row.
Why the squeeze won't ease by itself
Demand is the anchor. The Eurozone Construction PMI fell to 42.8 in June. Anything below 50 means shrinking activity. This downturn is now in its fourth year.
Log costs are not helping. Finnish spruce sawlogs cost €82.86/m³ in May — up 1% on the month. Yet Finnish roundwood trade in January–May ran 28% below last year. Mills pay firm prices for logs they barely need.
One contrast from across the Atlantic. Madison's North American lumber index hit US$545 per thousand board feet — up 5% in a month. Supply discipline there is holding prices up. That is the lesson for Europe's second half.
What this means for you
If you own forest: Spruce sawlogs are holding value far better than pulpwood. Plan your sales around that gap.
If you run a mill: The survey message is blunt. Discipline beats volume this summer.
If you buy timber: Flat prices today are not a promise for Q4. Thin pipelines snap back fast. Sources: Timber-Online — Sales indicator June 2026 | Fastmarkets — European sawn timber, May 2026 | Timber-Online — German production Q1 | Luke — Roundwood trade 5/2026 | Trading Economics — Eurozone Construction PMI | Madison's Lumber Prices Index, 3 July
📊 Quick Hits
1. 🇪🇺 25,408 new European forest credits issued
Ecobase's pan-European planting project just issued 25,408 verified carbon credits. The split: 12,140 from the 2023 vintage and 13,268 from 2024. The credits come from afforestation in 10 countries, from Portugal to the Baltics. Part of the volume was already pre-sold.
Why it matters: This is the grouped ARR project registered with Verra as VCS 3677 — the first pan-European one of its kind. It spans 24 countries and holds an MSCI Carbon Project Rating of 'A'.
The context: Last week we covered Ecobase's separate forest management project winning Verra registration (EFP #100). Planting and managing — both engines are now running.
The takeaway: European forest carbon is moving from promises to issued credits. Source: Ecobase announcement via newsletter, 30 June | Ecobase — MSCI 'A' rating for the VCS 3677 project
2. 🇩🇪 🇦🇹 Pellet prices find a floor
Central European wood pellet prices stopped falling in June. Germany trades around €350/t. Austria sits near €390–400/t. Swiss prices stay higher despite a small further dip. Buyers came back to the market for the summer season.
Why it matters: A price floor for pellets means a floor for low-grade wood and sawmill residues.
The takeaway: If you sell residuals into the pellet chain, the spring slide looks over. Source: Global Wood Markets Info — Central European pellet prices stabilise, 30 June
3. 🇫🇷 France's last pulp group gets three more weeks
Investor Matthieu Pigasse filed a rescue bid for Fibre Excellence on 2 July. The plan: a symbolic €6 for the six group companies, plus €107 million in investment. Restart of both mills is targeted by October. On 6 July, the Toulouse commercial court gave the bid until 27 July to firm up.
Why it matters: Fibre Excellence runs France's last two big market pulp mills. 670 jobs and a major roundwood buyer for southern France hang on this file.
The takeaway: A credible plan is on the table. The wood supply side is one of its key conditions — watch 27 July. Sources: France 3 — Court grants extension to 27 July | EnergyNews — Bid details
4. 🇸🇪 Sweden planted more forest in 2025
Sweden's forest cultivation area grew to 200,300 hectares in 2025, up from 192,000. Soil scarification jumped to 193,000 hectares, from 161,000 the year before. The Swedish Forest Agency also reported statistics on chemical browsing protection for the first time.
Why it matters: More planting and more site preparation today means more harvest options in 2075. Regeneration is the quiet backbone of every yield forecast.
The takeaway: Whatever the sawmill cycle does, Swedish owners keep investing in the next forest. Source: Skogsstyrelsen — Forest cultivation and soil scarification increased in 2025
📅 The Weeks Ahead
Thu, 16 July — ATIBT Carbon & Biodiversity webinar
Wed, 22 July — RFSI Forum early-bird registration deadline. rfsi-forum.com
Fri, 24 July — Luke publishes June roundwood trade data for Finland. Luke statistics
Mon, 27 July — Toulouse court decision on the Fibre Excellence rescue | Verra's next-generation registry goes live.
Thu, 30 July — Weyerhaeuser Q2 results (call on 31 July). Announcement
16–18 Sep — EFI Annual Conference, Växjö, Sweden.
Tue, 22 Sep — CINEA LIFE Calls 2026 deadline | SoEF 2025 webinar on biological diversity.
Sun, 27 Sep — EU EmpCo Directive applies. Generic green claims become unlawful.
🔴 4–6 Oct — WAN-IFRA World Printers Summit, Rotterdam. I speak on 5 October. Event page
7–8 Oct — RFSI Forum, Denver | 19th European Congress (FOGE), Cologne.
🔴 13–14 Oct — CIFB London: Corporate Investments into Forestry & Biodiversity. Event page
15–18 Oct — INTERFORST 2026, Munich.
20–21 Oct — Global Bioeconomy Summit, Dublin.
4–6 Nov — TDUK Global Market Conference, London | 11th International Hardwood Conference, Antwerp.
Wed, 30 Dec — EUDR applies to large and medium operators, and all timber-sector operators.
💡 One Thing to Try This Week
Compare your country's forest data with your neighbours'. A new free tool makes it simple.
Open the European forest statistics portal — launched by Finland's MTK, built on State of Europe's Forests data.
Pick your country and one neighbour.
Check harvest levels against increment.
Ten minutes. You'll have context for every price discussion this autumn.
📗 The Forest-Investment Dictionary is live
We launched the Forest-Investment Dictionary on Friday. I wrote it with Danish forest economist Anders Tærø Nielsen. It has 151 pages, 11 chapters, 14 printable tools, and 3 calculators. Investors learn to read a forest. Foresters learn to read a term sheet.
Ten copies sold since. A product/marketing professional would shoot me in the back of the head and leave me dead in a ditch for crimes like this: launching a product on a Friday evening right before weekend. But it sells 😃. Thank you. The price is €99. Get yours below.
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Until Tomorrow!
Wish you all the best: Peter
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