European Forestry Pulse #66 🌲

Hello,

Finland just posted its best softwood export year in recent memory. Exports rose 24%. Value jumped 28% to €2.51 billion.

But here's the problem.

Finnish roundwood fellings dropped by 12% in January 2026. Full-year 2025 roundwood purchases fell 19% compared to 2024.

Exports booming. Raw material supply shrinking. That's not a cycle. That's a structural problem.

Here's what's moving European forestry this week:

Finland exported 10.1 million cubic metres of softwood lumber in 2025. That's up 24% from 8.2 million m³ in 2024. Export value rose 28% to €2.51 billion, from €1.95 billion the year before.

Those are strong numbers. Finland is Europe's largest softwood lumber exporter. When Finland ships more, it shapes prices across the continent.

But look at the other side of the equation.

Luke (Finland's Natural Resources Institute) reported that roundwood fellings in January 2026 fell to 5.85 million m³. That's 12% below the same month last year. Private forest removals — the backbone of Finnish timber supply — also dropped 12%.

The breakdown: sawlogs at 2.51 million m³. Pulpwood at 3.33 million m³. Pine logs at 1.06 million m³. Spruce logs at 1.32 million m³. Hardwood logs at just 135,000 m³.

For the full year 2025, roundwood purchases fell 19% compared to 2024. That's not a blip. That's forest owners pulling back.

This is the key question. Finland has the trees. The industry wants the wood. But the owners aren't bringing it to market.

Several forces are at work:

Price expectations. When owners see strong export numbers, they expect higher stumpage prices. If buyers don't meet those expectations, owners wait.

Competing land uses. Carbon credits, biodiversity payments, and conservation programs give forest owners alternatives to timber sales. Why sell logs when someone will pay you to keep the trees standing?

Generational shift. Younger forest owners in Finland are less dependent on timber income. They're more likely to hold their forest as an asset than to harvest actively.

Policy uncertainty. The EUDR, the Nature Restoration Law, and Finland's own national forest strategy all create questions. When owners don't know what rules come next, they wait.

The pattern exists across Europe. We've covered it from multiple angles this year:

Finland's data puts the sharpest numbers on a continental trend. The people who own the trees have options. The people who need the trees have fewer options every year.

If you buy Finnish timber: Expect tighter supply through 2026. January's 12% drop signals that owners won't flood the market even when export demand is strong.

If you compete with Finnish exporters: Finland shipping 10.1 million m³ means more Nordic lumber in your markets. But if Finnish supply tightens further, those volumes may not grow.

If you own forest anywhere in Europe: Watch Finland. Their owners are demonstrating market power. When enough owners hold back, prices rise. That dynamic is spreading south and west. Sources: Global Wood Markets Info — Finland Softwood Exports Up 24% | Luke — Commercial Fellings, January 2026 | Lesprom — Finland Roundwood Fellings Drop 12%

Finnish harvester manufacturer Ponsse reported 2025 net sales of approximately €750 million. Operating profit improved compared to 2024. But the order book shrank to around €141 million, down from €189 million the year before.

The real news: Ponsse launched a package of digital services including PONSSE Manager Pro. The platform includes harvesting emissions reporting — letting operators track the carbon footprint of their logging operations.

Why it matters: When your harvester manufacturer builds emissions tracking into its standard software, the industry is shifting. Sustainability reporting is moving from the boardroom to the forest floor.

Note: Exact financial figures are based on the February 17 exchange release. Cross-check against Ponsse's full annual report for audited numbers. Source: Ponsse — Financial Statements Release 2025

The World Association of News Media (WAN-IFRA) published an interview with ForestryBrief founder Péter Hasulyó on February 26.

What we discussed: Why publishers should pay attention to timber markets. The interview covers competing land uses for forests, European mill closures, and why forest owners are being offered better deals than selling to paper mills.

Key point: The paper supply chain starts in the forest. When forest owners have alternatives — carbon credits, solar leases, conservation payments — the raw material for paper gets more expensive. That's not a temporary disruption. It's a structural shift.

Why it's in this newsletter: ForestryBrief doesn't just report on the forestry sector. We're part of the conversation. When the world's largest news media association asks a forestry intelligence service about supply risks, it means the issue has crossed from trade press into mainstream awareness. Read the full interview: WAN-IFRA — Why Publishers Need to Pay Attention to Timber Markets

Germany's raw timber producer price index showed significant year-on-year increases through late 2025. Construction sector orders turned positive in real terms for the first time after several weak years.

Why it matters: Germany is Europe's largest timber market. When German prices rise and construction recovers, it pulls demand — and prices — across the continent.

The pattern: We've tracked German log prices since EFP #61. They keep climbing. This Destatis data confirms the full-year trend: double-digit gains across timber categories.

The takeaway: If you sell timber into German markets, your negotiating position remains strong. If you buy, margins stay under pressure. Source: Destatis | Direction confirmed via Timber-Online and secondary market reporting

The United States imported 3.23 million m³ of hardwood plywood in 2025. That's up 20% from the year before. Vietnam and Indonesia expanded their shipments significantly.

The trade signal: US tariff policy is reshaping global wood product flows. As tariffs shift, suppliers adapt. Vietnamese and Indonesian producers are filling gaps left by Chinese exports facing higher duties.

The European angle: When Asian plywood flows shift toward the US, it changes competitive dynamics in other markets. European panel producers may face less Asian competition in their home markets — but also less price pressure. Source: Lesprom — US Hardwood Plywood Imports Up 20% in 2025

Read the WAN-IFRA interview.

Not because I wrote it. Because it shows you how people outside forestry see our sector.

News publishers worry about paper costs. They don't understand why. They've maybe never heard of stumpage prices, competing land uses, or the EUDR.

That gap between what we know and what they know? That's the communication problem ForestryBrief exists to solve.

Ten minutes of reading. A new perspective on how the outside world views European forests. Read it here.

European forestry needs better communication and smarter capital. We deliver both.

Intelligence: EUDR compliance, timber market analysis, carbon market monitoring, forest investment due diligence.

Communication: Content strategy, trade publication articles, stakeholder messaging, staff training. Three languages: EN | DE | HU.

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Until Tuesday!

Wish you all the best: Peter

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