European Forestry Pulse #50 🌲🎉

Hello,

This is issue number 50.

When I started ForestryBrief in July 2025, I wasn't sure anyone would read it. Now we're 200+ subscribers strong. Open rates put us in the top 5% of all newsletters. Thank you for being here.

But let's start with news that matters.

Poland just made timber sanctions real. Five people arrested. Russian and Belarusian plywood smuggled through fake papers. Potential sentences: 3 to 30 years. This isn't a warning letter. It's handcuffs.

The arrests happened December 18. Investigators found systematic sanctions evasion from 2022 to 2024. Key detail: dozens more investigations are ongoing. This is just the beginning.

Meanwhile, the EU finalized its 90% emissions target for 2040. Metsä launched AI biodiversity mapping at 16-meter resolution. And FSC mandated digital traceability by 2030.

Here's what's moving European forestry this week—in our 50th issue:

Poland's Customs and Tax Service raided multiple locations on December 18. Five people were arrested. The charge: importing Russian and Belarusian plywood with fake papers.

This is the first case of this scale publicly disclosed in the EU's timber sector.

Who was arrested:

The scheme: Between 2022 and 2024, companies in Poland's Pomeranian region imported banned wood products. Papers claimed Kazakh or Turkish origin. The real source: Russia and Belarus.

The products: Plywood and wooden mouldings. These products are banned from EU import under sanctions.

The charges: Violations of Poland's sanctions laws and Fiscal Penal Code. Potential sentences: 3 to 30 years in prison.

The investigation: Polish authorities worked with OLAF (EU Anti-Fraud Office). Kazakhstan provided assistance through legal cooperation. The paper trail revealed the real origins.

Industry reaction: Marek Janke, President of PAGED Plywood, welcomed the action. "Today's announcement is a breakthrough for our industry. It confirms that accountability does not stop at the border."

More coming: Janke added: "This is the first case of this scale made public. We know dozens of similar investigations are ongoing across Poland. We expect more charges and arrests in early 2026."

Why this matters: European markets suspected sanctions evasion for years. Plywood prices spiked after Russian products were banned. Some questioned whether all that "Kazakh" plywood was genuine. Now Poland proved the evasion was real. And prosecutable.

The message: Falsified origin documents can be traced. International cooperation works. Three to thirty years in prison is not theoretical.

For legitimate operators: Companies that invested in compliance are vindicated. Competitors who undercut prices through illegal sourcing face real consequences.

For forest owners: Sanctions enforcement protects European producers. Illegal Russian wood was depressing prices. Removing it helps honest operators. Sources: Duane Morris Sanctions Blog | PAGED Plywood Statement

The EU reached provisional political agreement on December 9-10. The 90% emissions reduction target for 2040 is now set to become legally binding.

What's confirmed: 90% net emissions cut by 2040 compared to 1990. This includes 85% domestic reductions. Up to 5% can come from international carbon credits starting 2036.

What we reported before: Issues #31 and #34 covered the November ministerial agreement. This December vote sets the final framework.

Forest carbon matters: The EU must aim for net-negative emissions after 2050. That means removing more CO₂ than emitted. Forests are central to this goal.

Commission President von der Leyen said: "One month after COP30, we have turned our words into action—with a legally binding target of 90% emissions reduction by 2040." Source: European Commission IP/25/2967

Metsä Group launched a digital Nature Value Map on December 3. The tool calculates biodiversity value at 16 x 16 meter resolution.

What it maps:

How it works: Open spatial data feeds AI analysis. Results appear with green shading. Darker green means higher biodiversity value.

Practical uses:

SVP Juha Laine said: "The purpose is not to prohibit forestry. It's to enable us to better address biodiversity when planning forest work."

What's coming: Metsä plans to add decaying wood data. They'll also show how management affects future biodiversity. Source: Metsä Group Official Release

FSC's 2025 General Assembly in Panama adopted Motion 30. It requires a universal digital traceability system for all certified supply chains.

The timeline:

What it does: Companies will report actual volumes traded. This allows verification that certified wood entering supply chains matches what reaches markets.

The problem it solves: Earthsight estimates FSC fraud at $10-30 billion yearly. Since Russia and Belarus left FSC in 2022, certified forest area dropped 30%. But companies licensed to handle FSC wood increased 37%. The math doesn't add up.

How it helps: Currently, companies can trade FSC timber without reporting volumes to FSC itself. The new system changes this. Centralized data makes fraud much harder.

The challenge: Digital tracking across thousands of companies in dozens of countries requires massive coordination. Sources: Forests of the World | Mongabay

Stora Enso received notification on December 30. BlackRock's holding fell below the 5% threshold on December 29. This triggers mandatory disclosure under Finnish law.

The context: Stora Enso announced November 14 it will spin off 1.2 million hectares of Swedish forest. The new company will be worth €5.7 billion. Target completion: first half of 2027.

What the move might signal: Large institutional investors adjusting positions around a major restructuring is normal. This could reflect profit-taking, portfolio rebalancing, or repositioning ahead of the demerger.

For forestry: The demerger creates Europe's largest listed pure-play forest company. Institutional investor activity shows close attention to this restructuring. Source: Nasdaq Regulatory Disclosure

This is issue number 50. Six months of twice-weekly coverage. Over 100 stories researched and verified.

What we've covered:

What I've learned:

European forestry professionals want verified intelligence. Not hype. Not speculation. Facts with sources. Analysis you can trust.

The engagement tells the story. 50-68% open rates. 30-63% click rates. Industry average is 20-25% opens. ForestryBrief readers engage at double or triple that rate.

What's coming:

European Forestry Pulse continues twice weekly. And there are a few things upcoming...

I'm building what I wished existed 25 years ago. Intelligence that helps European forest owners decide better.

Thank you:

To every subscriber who opened an email. Every reader who clicked through. Every professional who forwarded to a colleague. You made 50 issues possible.

Here's to the next 50.

January 2026: Finnish BECCS competitive bidding opens

January 24, 2026: PEFC field mission to Indonesia

Q1 2026: EU Carbon Removals Certification Framework applications open

Q1 2026: More Polish sanctions cases expected

H1 2027: Stora Enso Swedish forest demerger target

2030: FSC digital traceability full implementation

Audit your supply chain for sanctions risk. Poland proved enforcement is real. Five arrests. Up to 30 years in prison. Dozens more cases coming.

Twenty minutes of protection:

The Polish investigation traced fake papers back to real origins. If your suppliers claim non-sanctioned sources, can you verify that?

Enforcement agencies are cooperating across borders. OLAF is involved. The 2026 cases won't just target importers. They'll examine entire supply chains.

Legitimate operators who prove clean sourcing will thrive. Those who can't explain suspicious origins face questions. Make sure you're in the first group.

Until Tuesday! Happy 50th issue!

Wish you all the best: Peter

P.S. What’s the biggest challenge you’re facing in forestry right now?
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