Hello,
Poland just changed European timber trade. The country cut China exports in half. This wasn't market forces. It was policy.
The numbers: 251,000 m³ to China versus 500,000 m³ before. Polish sawmills now get the logs. Prices stayed at 2018 levels. The strategy: process timber at home, not ship raw logs to Asia.
Sweden's forestry confidence hit a five-year low. The UK found 17 timber species that work. Austria exported 8% more softwood. SCA earned top environmental ratings.
Here's what's moving European forestry this week:
🔍 The Big Story
Poland Cuts China Timber Exports 50% – Strengthens Domestic Processing
Poland exported 251,000 m³ of timber to China in Q1-Q3 2025. That's half the previous volume. This signals deliberate policy. Warsaw wants domestic processing, not raw log exports.
The strategic shift: Poland exported major softwood volumes to China for years. Chinese buyers paid premium prices. Polish forest owners profited. But Polish sawmills lost raw materials. The government reversed this.
New policies make exporting less attractive. They favor domestic processors instead. The 50% export cut proves it. Poland wants timber processed in Polish sawmills.
Price stability matters: Prices stayed at 2018 levels despite cutting exports in half. This means domestic demand absorbed the redirected logs. Polish sawmills can now access material that went to China before.
The Chinese impact: China's timber imports keep growing. But Poland's share is shrinking. Chinese buyers will source elsewhere. Likely Russia, New Zealand, or other suppliers. For Poland, losing Chinese premiums is acceptable. Domestic processing strengthens instead.
The European angle: Poland isn't alone. Multiple countries debate raw log exports. Logs create minimal jobs. Processed lumber creates sawmill jobs, transport work, and manufacturing.
The choice is clear. Raw exports maximize forest owner revenue short-term. Domestic processing maximizes industrial jobs long-term. Poland chose processing.
Broader effects: This affects European timber flows. Poland reduced Asian exports by 250,000+ m³ annually. That volume stays in Europe. Polish lumber now competes with German and Nordic products.
For Asian buyers, Poland's policy means finding new sources. Or accepting higher prices. For European sawmills outside Poland, it means more Polish lumber competing.
What this means for you:
If you export logs to Asia, watch for similar policies. Poland proved governments can redirect flows. If you run a European sawmill, expect more Polish lumber in your markets. Their processing capacity grows. If you own forest in Poland, domestic prices may not match Chinese premiums. But government policy prioritizes jobs over raw revenue.
The 2026 question: Will other countries follow? Germany restricts some exports already. Austria debates similar moves. If this spreads, European timber trade changes fundamentally. Less raw material to Asia. More processed products competing in Europe.
Poland's 50% cut proves policy can reshape markets. The question isn't whether it's possible. It's which country goes next. Sources: Interior Daily | GlobalWood Markets Info
📊 Quick Hits
1. 🇸🇪 Sweden Forestry Confidence Crashes to Five-Year Low
Sweden's forestry confidence dropped to 97.6 in Q4 2025. Down 19 points from last quarter. This is the lowest since spring 2020. The Swedish Forest Industries Federation tracks this quarterly.
Companies report declining orders. Weak market outlooks. Final felling decreased 4-8% across regions. The Swedish forestry sector generates $18 billion in annual exports. Confidence matters for national planning.
The drop reflects Nordic timber challenges. High log prices meet weak construction. Compressed sawmill margins. Uncertain 2026 recovery. Swedish producers face what Finnish and Norwegian operations already hit.
The takeaway: Major Nordic producer signals sustained weakness. Confidence at five-year low despite high log prices. Market dysfunction beyond seasons. Source: Lesprom Network | Forest Machine Magazine
2. 🇬🇧 UK Forest Research Identifies 17 Promising Timber Species
UK Forest Research published five-year trials on December 11. They tested alternatives to Sitka spruce. Results: 17 species show promise for future UK forestry. Climate change reduces viability of current species.
Top candidates: Douglas fir works for many Sitka sites. Maritime pine handles lowland drought. Western red cedar adapts to warmer conditions. Several Mediterranean pines suit southern England.
Trials evaluated growth, timber quality, pest resistance, climate fit. Results guide replanting over 20-30 years.
UK produces 40% of timber consumption domestically. Species diversification matters. Traditional species face drought, pests, storm damage under climate change.
The takeaway: UK forestry has verified Sitka alternatives. Evidence-based diversification for long-term replanting. Source: UK Forest Research
3. 🇦🇹 Austrian Softwood Exports Up 8% Despite Weak Construction
Austria exported an additional 331,000 m³ of softwood in Q1-Q3 2025 versus 2024. That's 8% growth. This happened despite collapsed construction across Central Europe.
Export growth reflects Austria's supplier position. Better than Germany's crisis conditions. Austrian exporters secured contracts. Spruce at €140/m³. Pine at €100/m³. Contracts extend into mid-2026.
Austrian sawmills still face profit challenges. But export access provides revenue certainty. Germany operations lack this. Austria benefits from geography. Ships east to Balkans, south to Italy, north to Scandinavia. Demand varies by region.
The takeaway: Austrian producers gain from export diversity. 8% growth despite construction collapse shows geographic advantage. Source: Timber-Online
4. 🏆 SCA Earns CDP A-List Rating in Climate and Forests
Swedish company SCA achieved A-List from CDP on December 9. Both Climate and Forests categories. This places SCA among top global performers for environmental action. CDP assessed over 20,000 companies worldwide in 2025. Only small percentage achieve A-List in any category. Earning both demonstrates comprehensive sustainability across emissions, forest management, biodiversity.
Ratings evaluate disclosure quality. Awareness of risks. Management practices addressing climate and deforestation. Companies must lead, not just comply.
For SCA, ratings validate integrated forestry and climate work. The company manages major Swedish forest assets. Operates pulp, paper, wood products manufacturing.
The takeaway: Major Nordic forest company achieves highest global ratings. Commercial forestry can meet strict sustainability standards. Source: SCA Press Release
📅 The Weeks Ahead
December 19, 2025: Stora Enso bond redemption (€500 million) using forest sale proceeds
December 30, 2026: EUDR deadline for large/medium operators (pending Parliament approval this week)
January 2026: First EU Carbon Removals Certification applications open
Q1 2026: Polish export policy impacts show in trade statistics
💡 One Thing to Try This Week
Map your timber sourcing exposure to policy shifts. Poland's 50% export cut proves governments can redirect flows overnight. Similar policies could emerge elsewhere.
Twenty minutes, strategic value:
List your top 5 timber suppliers by volume
Note which countries they source from
Check if those countries export raw logs to Asia
Research if those governments discuss domestic processing
Develop backup sourcing for each supplier
Poland removed 250,000+ m³ from Asian markets through policy. If Germany, Czechia, or Austria do similar moves, European flows change. The question isn't if governments can do this. Poland proved they can. The question is which country goes next.
Don't wait until your supplier announces lost material access. Know your exposure now. Diversify before policies change.
When governments decide sawmills matter more than exports, supply chains adjust fast. Be ready.
Until Thursday!
Wish you all the best: Peter
P.S. What’s the biggest challenge you’re facing in forestry right now?
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