Hello,
European forest carbon markets proved commercial viability in 2025. January saw the first Verra-certified pan-European afforestation credits sold. May brought Microsoft's 18 million tonne removal credit framework. These milestones validate that European forest carbon works at scale.
Meanwhile, Estonian pulpwood prices dropped across all species in October. An AI system now detects wildfires from regular security cameras. And EU tropical wood imports show high prices but weak volumes.
Here's what's moving European forestry this week:
🔍 The Big Story
European Forest Carbon Markets Proved Commercial Viability in 2025
European forest carbon markets achieved two major milestones in 2025 that validate commercial viability at scale. In January, Ecobase completed the first sale of Verra-certified afforestation credits from a pan-European project. In May, Microsoft signed an 18 million tonne carbon removal framework with Rubicon Carbon. Together, these transactions prove the market works.
The January milestone: Ecobase announced in early 2025 the sale of its first Verra-certified afforestation credits to Rubicon Carbon. This marked the first issuance from a pan-European project covering 24 countries. The achievement: aggregating forest carbon across Europe with unified Verra certification acceptable to international buyers.
Before January, no pan-European forest carbon project had successfully issued and sold Verra-certified credits at commercial scale. Individual national projects existed. Small pilot programs operated. But nobody aggregated 24 countries into one certified project with international buyers.
The May milestone: Microsoft and Rubicon Carbon announced a framework agreement in May 2025 for 18 million tonnes of nature-based carbon removal credits. The agreement covers a pipeline of afforestation and reforestation projects worldwide. This validates that tech companies commit to multi-year offtakes for high-quality removal credits.
Why 2025 matters: These two transactions—separate but complementary—validate the entire European forest carbon value chain. Forest owners can participate through aggregators. Projects can achieve rigorous international certification. Buyers exist at scale. Tech companies commit to multi-year frameworks. The market functions commercially.
The European aggregation model: Ecobase's 24-country coverage solves a critical problem. Forest owners in Romania, Poland, or Portugal previously needed separate national certification schemes. Different standards. Different buyers. Different pricing. The pan-European approach created unified Verra standards acceptable to international buyers.
This dramatically lowers entry barriers. A Polish forest owner with 50 hectares can participate in the same project as a Spanish estate with 5,000 hectares. One certification. One buyer relationship. Economies of scale.
The verification standard: Verra certification requires strict criteria. Projects must prove additionality—the afforestation wouldn't happen without carbon finance. They must demonstrate permanence—carbon stays sequestered long-term with monitoring and buffer pools. They need accurate quantification using approved methodologies with third-party verification.
Ecobase met all requirements across 24 different regulatory environments. Different land registries. Different forestry laws. Different monitoring systems. One unified Verra certification proved achievable.
The tech buyer signal: Microsoft's May framework agreement signals corporate appetite for high-quality removal credits. The company structured a multi-year commitment covering global afforestation projects. Tech buyers increasingly seek removal credits rather than avoidance credits. They accept premium pricing for verified quality.
This validates European forest carbon as competitive with global alternatives. Projects meeting international standards can attract major corporate buyers through intermediaries like Rubicon Carbon.
What this means for you: If you're a forest owner considering carbon projects, 2025 proved aggregation models work. You don't need massive hectarage. You don't need to navigate Verra certification alone. Aggregators handle complexity. You provide the forest. They provide certification, marketing, and buyer relationships.
If you're already in carbon projects, these milestones set market expectations. High-quality European removal credits command pricing because corporate buyers pay for verification rigor. Don't undersell to low-quality aggregators offering quick deals without proper certification.
If you're skeptical about carbon markets, 2025 provided commercial proof. Real credits sold. Real frameworks signed. Real corporate commitments made. The European forest carbon market exists and functions.
The broader context: These 2025 milestones came before the EU adopted its official Carbon Removals Certification Framework (CRCF) on November 20, 2025. Commercial viability was proven under international standards before EU standards even launched. When CRCF-certified projects appear in mid-2026, they'll enter a market already validated by existing transactions.
The Ecobase-Rubicon transaction in January and Microsoft framework in May demonstrate European forests compete globally for carbon finance. The certification works. The buyers exist. The scale functions. Forest owners have options beyond traditional timber markets. Sources: Ecobase Blog, Rubicon Carbon Partnership Announcement, Microsoft-Rubicon Framework
📊 Quick Hits
1. 🇪🇪 Estonian Pulpwood Prices Drop Across All Species in October
Verified market data for October 2025 confirms declining Estonian pulpwood prices across all major species. Birch pulpwood fell to €37.42/m³. Pine dropped to €35.50/m³. Spruce reached €35.40/m³. Aspen showed the sharpest decline at €27.86/m³, down 14.3% month-over-month.
The uniform price drop reflects cooling demand in the Baltic fiber market. This potentially signals lower production volumes for regional pulp mills in Q1 2026. Estonia serves as a pricing indicator for broader Baltic timber markets.
The decline contrasts with Central European log price increases during the same period. Markets continue fragmenting by region rather than moving uniformly across Europe.
The takeaway: Baltic pulpwood markets cooling despite Central European supply tightness—confirming regional market fragmentation continues. Source: Global Wood Markets Info
2. 🔥 LookOut AI Wildfire Detection Gains European Recognition in Q4 2025
Hong Kong-based Robotics Cats' LookOut system secured major recognition in Q4 2025, winning the Solar Impulse Pioneer Awards in October and advancing to XPRIZE Wildfire semifinals. The system now operates across 11+ countries including documented European deployments in Portugal, Spain, and Greece.
LookOut distinguishes itself by working with standard surveillance cameras rather than requiring specialized thermal equipment. The system detects fires as small as 25×25 pixels within 15 minutes of ignition, covering up to 70,000 hectares per camera. This dramatically lowers deployment costs compared to dedicated thermal imaging networks.
The European Forest Institute's Bioregions Facility profiled the technology earlier in 2025, following CEO Andre Cheung's presentation at the November 2024 Forestry Speed Dating webinar. The system's software-as-a-service model allows forest operations to convert existing security infrastructure into wildfire detection networks within minutes.
LookOut enters 2026 focused on XPRIZE competition finals and expanding its European footprint through partnerships identified via EFI connections.
The takeaway: AI wildfire detection using standard cameras continues gaining traction in European forestry, with Q4 2025 awards validating the technology's practical applications. Sources: Robotics Cats - Solar Impulse Awards, EFI Bioregions - LookOut Factsheet
3. 📊 EU Tropical Wood Imports Show High Prices But Weak Volumes
EU27 tropical wood and furniture imports reached 1.17 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2025, up 8% year-over-year. However, Q3 2025 volumes of 400,800 tonnes remained significantly below the long-term quarterly average of 450,000 tonnes.
High unit prices drove import values to approximately $2.47 billion, also up 8%. This masks underlying weakness in trade volumes. The value growth comes entirely from price increases, not volume expansion.
The data suggests tropical timber remains expensive but European buyers purchase less. This could reflect EUDR compliance preparation causing buyers to reduce purchases until traceability systems function properly.
The takeaway: EU tropical wood trade shows concerning pattern—rising prices without volume recovery suggests structural market problems beyond normal demand cycles. Source: GlobalWood Trade Statistics
4. 🇫🇮 Finland Harvests 5.9 Million m³ Industrial Roundwood in October
Finland harvested 5.9 million m³ of roundwood for industrial use in October 2025, representing a 6% decrease from the same month last year. The decline continues the pattern of reduced harvest activity across Finland despite historically high stumpage prices.
The October figures come amid broader Finnish timber market dysfunction. Q3 2025 saw private forest timber trade collapse 42% year-over-year despite prices 15-55% above 2022 levels. High prices with falling volumes signals persistent market problems.
The takeaway: October harvest data confirms Finnish timber market dysfunction continues—reduced activity despite high prices suggests structural issues beyond seasonal patterns. Source: Fordaq Market Report, Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)
📅 The Weeks Ahead
December 5, 2025: CITES COP20 concludes in Samarkand, Uzbekistan—timber trade regulation decisions
December 10, 2025: ThinkForest: Navigating through the EU forest-related objectives in Brussels, Belgium
December 16, 2025: EU-FarmBook Forum 2025 (online)—Turning knowledge into action for competitive farms and forests
Mid-2026: First CRCF-certified forest carbon projects expected
💡 One Thing to Try This Week
Research carbon project aggregators operating in your country. With 2025 proving pan-European aggregation works commercially, forest owners have validated options.
Thirty minutes, potentially high-value:
Search "forest carbon projects [your country]" to find active aggregators
Check if they have Verra, Gold Standard, or Plan Vivo certification (not just national schemes)
Note minimum hectare requirements and participation terms
Compare revenue share models—what percentage stays with forest owners versus aggregators
Ask about buyer relationships—do they have corporate offtake frameworks?
Forest owners in aggregated projects might earn €20-50/hectare/year depending on contract structure. That's €1,000-2,500 annual income from 50 hectares.
Compare those numbers to timber income. Then decide if carbon markets make sense for your operation. The 2025 milestones prove the market exists and functions. The question is whether the economics work at your scale with available aggregators.
Until Tuesday!
Wish you all the best: Peter
P.S. What’s the biggest challenge you’re facing in forestry right now?
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