Hello,
The numbers stopped me cold. A major study in Nature Climate Change just quantified what we've all sensed but couldn't price: climate change will more than double the economic damage to European forests. Plus I have a free gift for you at the end…
Here's what's moving European forestry this week:
🔍 The Big Story
Forest Disturbance Costs Could More Than Double by 2100
A groundbreaking study published September 18 in Nature Climate Change reveals the staggering economic toll climate change will take on European forests. The research team analyzed forest disturbance costs from 1981 through 2100, producing the first comprehensive economic projections for our industry.
Current annual forest disturbance costs average €1.73 billion (1981-2005 baseline). But here's where it gets alarming: under severe climate scenarios, these costs could reach €3.71 billion annually by 2076-2100—a 114% increase.
The regional breakdown reveals dramatic disparities. Central Europe faces the harshest impact, with potential losses up to €19,885 per hectare in extreme scenarios. Germany, Austria, Switzerland, and the Czech Republic sit squarely in the highest impact zones. Northern Europe faces 60-65% lower costs but still sees increases. Southern Europe falls somewhere in between, with declining productivity offsetting some damage costs.
The projections by climate scenario:
Mild change (RCP2.6): €2.19 billion annually
Moderate change (RCP4.5): €2.78 billion annually
Severe change (RCP8.5): €3.71 billion annually
Total economic impact over the 2076-2100 period could reach €247 billion under the worst-case scenario.
What this means for you: Forest management strategies based on historical climate patterns are obsolete. Central European forest owners need immediate adaptation planning. Insurance models require complete recalculation. Investment in climate-resilient species becomes mandatory, not optional. Source: Nature Climate Change
📊 Quick Hits
1. 🔥 Europe Burns Through 1 Million Hectares
Europe's worst wildfire season since records began in 2006. Nearly 1 million hectares burned by August's end, with 1.8 million hectares total by September. The damage released 39.4 million tonnes of CO₂. Portugal lost 3% of its territory (260,000 hectares), Spain 0.8% (400,000 hectares).
The takeaway: Traditional fire management fails against new climate reality. Source: Earth.org
2. 📈 German Pellet Prices Jump 8% in September
Sharp increase to €335/tonne average, up from €310 in August. Regional variation extreme: Bavaria €237.7/t versus Saarland €267.5/t. Germany also set record for pellet imports in first seven months of 2025.
The takeaway: Energy wood markets tightening as heating season approaches. Source: Timber Online
3. 🚁 Drones Detect Bark Beetle 3 Weeks Before Visible Damage
Czech researchers prove hyperspectral UAV imagery identifies Ips typographus infestation during "green stage." Detection possible roughly three weeks after initial attack, two weeks before crown discoloration. Key wavelengths: red-edge (692-706 nm) and red (626-644 nm).
The takeaway: Early detection technology exists—implementation lags. Source: Science Direct
4. 🇸🇪 Sweden-Finland Demand EU Forest Target Revision
Both countries formally wrote to Commission President von der Leyen stating they'll miss 2030 LULUCF targets. Sweden needs 4 million tonnes more CO₂ absorption annually, Finland needs 3 million tonnes. Prime Minister Kristersson called current framework "unjustified and unreasonable."
The takeaway: Nordic resistance to Brussels forestry rules intensifies. Source: Reuters
💎 ForestryBrief Professional Update
This Week: Carbon Markets Part 3 drops Friday—revealing which European forests actually qualify for credits and why 80% of applications fail verification.
Already Available:
Complete 3-part EUDR Compliance Series (Issue 1 free, Issues 2-3 exclusive)
Carbon Markets Parts 1-2 (verification costs, pricing disparities)
Integration strategies saving €80,000+ annually
Monthly: €49 | Annual: €490 (save €98)
The Weeks Ahead 📅
This Week:
Early October:
Oct 1: National Hardwood Lumber Association Convention, San Antonio
Oct 2-16: Multiple EUDR training sessions (14:00 CEST, links available in the free part of FB EUDR Extra)
Oct 7-9: Lignofuels Conference, Helsinki
Key Dates:
Oct 28: Last EU EUDR training before December deadline
Nov 2: PEFC Luxembourg consultation closes
Dec 30: EUDR enforcement begins (no grace period confirmed)
One Thing to Try This Week 🎯
Test the Spanish carbon credit platform before it gets crowded. The new blockchain-verified system accepts small projects and provides automatic validation with MITECO, Verra, and Gold Standard. Early adopters report 70% faster transactions than traditional brokers. Registration is free—you only pay when credits sell.
Access at: Cabida
Here’s you free gift: I have put a little lead magnet onto the thank you page of the EFP subscription to make the newsletter more attractive and to incentivize people to complete the double-opt-in process required by the GDPR regulation for European newsletters. But as a faithful reader, I don’t want you to miss out on any goodies, so here is your EUDR Cheatsheet:
Until Thursday!
Wish you all the best: Peter
P.S. What’s the biggest challenge you’re facing in forestry right now?
Hit reply and let me know — I read every message personally.
P. P. S. Know a forest professional who’s drowning in EUDR complexity or missing out on timber market shifts? Share FB with them through the referral program below and get a gift after you refer 10 new subscribers!
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