European Forestry Pulse #119 🌲

Hello,

Sweden's forest agency published two price series this year. One reached the highest level in the history of the series. The other fell across every single assortment.

Both are correct. They measure two different things. The gap between them is the most useful number in European forestry right now.

Here's what's moving European forestry this week:

Skogsstyrelsen, the Swedish Forest Agency, published its forest land price statistics for 2025. The national average reached SEK 92,000 per hectare. That is up SEK 4,500 on 2024, or just over 5%. It is the second yearly rise in a row. Prices fell in 2023, then recovered in 2024, then rose again.

It also passes the previous high of the series. That was SEK 90,700 in 2022. The series runs back to 1999. The same agency also publishes roundwood prices. Its second quarter 2026 figures went the other way.

Delivery timber fell too. Sawlogs dropped 7% and pulpwood 8%, nationally.

Four things belong with those numbers. Skip them and you will draw the wrong conclusion.

The periods are different. The land price covers calendar year 2025. The roundwood price covers the second quarter of 2026. These are not the same moment. Do not read them as one.

Both are calculated figures. The agency states plainly that its roundwood prices do not represent the prevailing market price during the quarter.

The land price is not a forest-only sale price. It is the purchase price, multiplied by the forestry share of assessed value, divided by the forest land area.

The property mix changes every year. The agency warns that area, number of sales and forest condition all vary. That alone moves the average.

Nobody here is hiding anything. Two honest official series measure two different things. That is the whole point.

The strongest number is not the national average. It is the spread by property size.

Properties of 1 to 5 hectares average SEK 124,400 per hectare.

Properties over 100 hectares average SEK 49,900 per hectare.

Per hectare, the smallest properties cost about two and a half times the largest.

Small properties do not grow better trees. They do not have lower costs. Per hectare, they usually have higher ones. Whoever pays SEK 124,400 a hectare for four hectares is not buying cash flow. They are buying something else. Access to a neighbouring block. A place to hunt. A house with woods behind it. A place to put money.

The regional spread says the same thing. Götaland in the south averages SEK 144,500. Northern Norrland averages SEK 42,700. Since 1999, Götaland has gained around SEK 110,000 per hectare. Northern Norrland has gained around SEK 33,000. That gap has widened for 26 years. Most purchases happen in Götaland, then Svealand. Fewest happen in Southern Norrland.

If you own forest: your balance sheet and your income statement are moving apart. One is not a proxy for the other.

If you are selling: the buyer for four hectares and the buyer for 400 hectares are different people doing different maths. Price the block for the buyer it will actually attract.

If you are buying: a falling timber price is a cash flow event. It is not automatically a discount on land.

If you value or lend against forest: ask which series the valuation leans on, and over what period. Two defensible numbers can sit a long way apart.

Timber income and land value have never been the same thing. We just usually get to pretend they are, because they move together. Sweden has now shown a year where they did not. Same country. Same agency. Opposite directions.

That is a good problem to have. Forest land is being priced as an asset, not just a wood factory. More reasons to own forest means more owners, and more capital coming in. The work now is different. It is making sure the people who grow the wood get paid properly for it. Sources: Skogsstyrelsen — Price of forest land in 2025 | Skogsstyrelsen — Lower prices on roundwood during second quarter of 2026 | Skogsstyrelsen — Facts on the statistics on prices for productive forest land

The European Commission has deployed release 8.2.1 of the EUDR Information System. Its Deforestation Team announced it in a newsletter on 4 September.

The release is live on both the acceptance and the production servers.

Four things are new:

Why it matters: This is the plumbing, not the policy. Most EUDR coverage argues about the rules. The system is where you will actually spend your hours.

Both new functions are workload items. Grouping lets you handle declarations together instead of one at a time. Versioning means a Simplified Declaration can be corrected rather than replaced.

The takeaway: EUDR applies to large and medium operators, and to all timber-sector operators, on 30 December 2026. Log in well before then. Find out what your role can and cannot do in release 8.2.1. Deadlines are met in software, not in press releases. Sources: European Commission — ENV Deforestation newsletter, 4 September 2026 | European Commission — EUDR Release Notes 8.2.1 (PDF)

Two German trade bodies have asked for clearer transition treatment under the EU EmpCo Directive. They are DHWR and GD Holz.

Their concern is stacking. EmpCo, EUDR and PPWR all land on the same companies. The specific request is about goods that were already produced before the rules apply. EmpCo applies on 27 September 2026, later this month. From that date, generic green claims become unlawful.

Why it matters: "Generic green claims" is broader than it sounds. It covers words like environmentally friendly, climate neutral or eco, used without proof. Wood sells on exactly that ground. A lot of packaging, labels and brochures were written before this rule existed.

The takeaway: Pull your last three brochures and your product pages this week. Circle every environmental word. If you cannot show the evidence behind a word, you have until 27 September to change it or prove it. Source: Fordaq — German wood industry seeks changes to EmpCo transition rules

On 1 September, African swine fever controls stopped forestry work in southeastern Finland. Around 600,000 cubic metres of harvesting was at risk. Metsälehti estimated nearly €30 million of forest-owner stumpage revenue at risk.

On 8 September the restrictions were eased. Finland now allows forestry work outside the core zone. Logging can restart across much of the controlled zone. One condition stays. Forestry machines leaving the area must be washed and disinfected.

Why it matters: African swine fever is an animal disease. It has nothing to do with trees. It still stopped the harvest. That is the lesson here. The whole arc took eight days.

The takeaway: Your risk register probably lists storms, fire, beetles and price. Add the category this belongs to: rules written for a neighbouring sector that stop your machines. Then ask your contractor what their washing and disinfection capability actually is, before you need it. Sources: Fordaq — African swine fever disrupts forestry operations in Finland | Fordaq — Finland eases restrictions to allow forestry operations

Value your land and your standing timber separately. Then look at the gap.

If the land number is much bigger, you own an asset that happens to grow wood. If the timber number is much bigger, you own a crop that happens to sit on land.

Those two things need different decisions, different timing and different buyers. Most owners have never separated them.

Ten minutes. Two numbers. It changes what you do next.

"Forest land is at a record price. So why do you keep saying forestry doesn't pay?"

Someone will put this to you. A journalist, a councillor, or your brother-in-law over Sunday lunch. The hard part is that both halves of the question are true. The land is worth more. The wood is worth less. Saying so without sounding evasive is a skill.

You have thirty seconds and no notes. What do you say?

Land value and timber value are two separate inputs. A falling timber price does not automatically mean a falling asset.

Most valuations blend the two into one number. That works fine until they move apart. Sweden has just published a year where they did.

I wrote the Forest-Investment Dictionary with Danish forest economist Anders Tærø Nielsen. It has 151 pages, 11 chapters, 14 printable tools, and 3 calculators. Investors learn to read a forest. Foresters learn to read a term sheet.

When the market turns, the people who can read the numbers make the better calls. The price is €99. Get yours below.

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Until Thursday!

Wish you all the best: Peter

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