European Forestry Pulse #107 🌲

Hello,

Last Thursday we told you Finnish pulp was under pressure. UPM called the market challenging. It planned a mill shutdown.

The next morning, Finland's official price data landed. Pulpwood went up.

Both things are true. Here is how to hold them together.

Here's what's moving European forestry this week:

Luke published Finland's June roundwood trade figures last Friday. Luke is Finland's Natural Resources Institute.

The numbers come from signed wood trade contracts. They show what buyers actually paid. Not what sellers asked.

Every roundwood assortment rose in June.

Standing-sale pulpwood rose 5% from May. That is at least €1 per cubic metre on every species.

Logs rose too, for the second month running.

Roadside prices followed. Birch pulpwood rose 4% to €44.14. Spruce pulpwood rose 2% to €42.21. Pine pulpwood rose 3% to €39.93.

Pulpwood has been falling for about a year.

June 2025 was the peak. Luke's monthly series starts in 1995. It had never recorded higher standing-sale prices for pine and birch pulpwood.

Then the fall began. By January 2026, pine pulpwood had lost nearly 38% in seven months. Spruce and birch lost roughly a third.

In May, conifer pulpwood was still sliding.

June is the first month it went the other way.

Now look at volume.

Finnish forest owners sold 21% less industrial roundwood in the first half of 2026 than a year earlier. That is 18% below the five-year average. Pulpwood purchases sat 24% below it.

June itself looked better. Purchases rose 11% from May and 11% from a year earlier.

But they were still 17% below the average June of the past five years.

So the price rose while the market stayed thin.

There are two honest readings.

One: demand is returning, and price moves before volume does.

Two: mills are paying up because too little wood is coming forward.

Nothing in the June data settles which one it is. Anyone who tells you it does is selling something.

These are Luke's monthly statistics. The data comes from the largest wood buyers and from forest management associations.

It is a very good sample. It is not every trade in Finland.

If you own forest in Finland: the floor may be in. Standing-sale pulpwood is still far below 2025. But the direction changed. Watch July before you commit a large lot.

If you buy pulpwood: cheap wood is getting less cheap. Roadside pulpwood is still 15% to 23% under the 2025 average. That gap is your remaining margin.

If you hold Nordic timberland: one month is not a valuation event. Two would start to be. Sources: Luke — Volumes and prices in roundwood trade, 6/2026 | Luke — Volumes and prices in roundwood trade, 1/2026 (the seven-month decline) | Lesprom — Finland roundwood prices rise in June

Sveaskog is Sweden's biggest forest owner. The state owns it.

Its second-quarter operating profit fell 42% to MSEK 431. Lower timber prices did most of the damage.

Net profit went the other way. It rose 45% to MSEK 483.

The reason is a positive revaluation of biological assets. That is an accounting entry on the value of standing trees.

Why it matters: Finland's prices turned up in June. Sweden's state forest owner is still paying for the fall.

The takeaway: Read both lines before you form a view. Operating profit fell on real trade. Net profit rose on a valuation. Only one of them is cash. Sources: Sveaskog Q2 2026 earnings summary — Quartr | Sveaskog report downloads

China imported 11.6 million m³ of softwood logs from January to June. That is 6% less than the same period in 2025, when it took 12.3 million m³.

June alone went the other way. Softwood log imports rose 10% that month. The price paid rose 8%.

Why it matters: China sets the floor under European and Russian log exports. A falling half-year with a rising June is the same shape as Finland's price data above.

The takeaway: Watch July. One month of Chinese buying is noise. Two months would start to move Nordic and Central European export pricing. Sources: Timber-Online — China reduced its softwood log imports | Lesprom — Imports of softwood logs to China increase 10% in June

The Forisk Timber REIT Index fell 1.91% in the week ending 24 July. The S&P 500 fell 0.61%.

Last week we reported a 3.91% gain. It is gone.

The year-to-date figure is the one to keep. The FTR Index has returned 1.13% in 2026. The S&P 500 has returned 8.28%.

Why it matters: Listed timber is not following the broad equity rally. It has returned roughly one-eighth as much this year.

The takeaway: If you hold both, that gap is diversification doing its job. It is not a stock-picking failure. Read it as an asset class behaving differently, which is why you own it. Source: Forisk weekly FTR Index Summary (subscriber email)

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Never read a price without its volume. It takes ten minutes.

Those two situations look identical on a price chart. They end very differently.

A price that rises on rising volume usually keeps rising. A price that rises on falling volume often snaps back when supply returns.

Finland's June data is exactly this problem. Prices up. Volume still 21% below last year.

Do this once and you will never read a headline price the same way again.

The next time someone asks why you cut trees, you'll have thirty seconds to answer.

Right now — what do you say?

If the answer isn't ready, the Playbook is.

Today's Big Story is one long lesson in reading a number properly. A price on its own tells you almost nothing. A price next to a volume tells you what is really happening.

That skill is the whole point of this book.

I wrote the Forest-Investment Dictionary with Danish forest economist Anders Tærø Nielsen. It has 151 pages, 11 chapters, 14 printable tools, and 3 calculators. Investors learn to read a forest. Foresters learn to read a term sheet.

When the market turns, the people who can read the numbers make the better calls. The price is €99. Get yours below.

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Until Thursday!

Wish you all the best: Peter

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