Hello,
Estonia just squeezed the Baltic timber market.
The government ordered state forests to cut logging by 10%. The result? Estonian pine sawlog prices jumped 20%. At the same time, Finnish prices fell 20%. That's a 40% gap between neighbors.
Sawmills are scrambling. Some now truck logs from Latvia. Others look to Finland. The state forest manager plans 75 layoffs starting July. One policy decision. Regional supply shock. Price chaos.
Here's what's moving European forestry this week:
🔍 The Big Story
Estonia Logging Cut Creates 40% Price Gap with Finland
Estonia's Ministry of Climate ordered a 10% cut in state forest logging. The State Forest Management Centre (RMK) must harvest less timber. Industry feels the pain immediately.
The price shock: Estonian pine sawlog prices rose roughly 20% since the announcement. Finnish prices fell 20% over the same period. Buyers paying €100 in Finland now pay €140 in Estonia for similar logs. That gap changes every calculation.
Why Estonia cut back: The government says forests need recovery time. Environmental groups pushed for less harvesting. Political pressure won. Economics lost.
What sawmills face: Estonian mills built their business on local supply. Now they must source abroad or shrink. Trucking from Latvia adds transport costs. Finnish wood costs less per cubic meter but travels further. Neither option feels good.
The human cost: RMK plans to lay off up to 75 workers starting July 2026. That's forest managers, machine operators, and planners losing jobs. Small communities in rural Estonia will feel this most.
The ripple effect: Latvia gains export opportunity. Finland's oversupply finds a new market. Swedish storm-damaged wood competes for attention. Baltic timber trade is reshuffling.
What this means for you: If you buy Baltic timber, prices are moving fast. Lock in contracts now or wait for the dust to settle. If you sell into Baltic markets, Finnish competition just got fiercer. Sources: Forest Machine Magazine | Global Wood | ERR News
📊 Quick Hits
1. 🇸🇪 Sweden's Harvest Plans Drop 27% in December
Swedish forest owners notified 27% less felling area in December than the year before. Total: 16,704 hectares. That signals caution across the industry.
Context: This comes after Storm Johannes felled 10 million cubic meters in late December. Owners now face a choice: harvest damaged timber first, or stick to original plans?
The gap: Mountain-near forest permits crashed 90%. Only 310 hectares applied versus 3,139 the year before. Environmental scrutiny in sensitive areas bites hard.
The takeaway: Nordic harvest volumes may fall further in 2026. Plan your procurement with buffer stock. Source: Skogsstyrelsen
2. 🌍 Gold Standard Tightens Rules — All 2026 Credits Need Paris Alignment
All carbon credits with a 2026 vintage must now follow Paris Agreement rules. Gold Standard made this mandatory on January 1.
What changed: Projects must use new calculation methods. They need "Downward Adjustment Factors" and "Regulatory Surplus" tests. Old CDM methods no longer qualify.
The deadline passed: December 31, 2025 was the last day for non-aligned issuance. If your project missed it, you must update before getting 2026 credits.
The takeaway: Forest carbon projects face extra paperwork. Budget time for methodology transition. Delays are coming. Source: Gold Standard
3. 🇧🇬 Bulgaria Timber Output Hits Record Low
Bulgarian timber production fell to its lowest level on record in 2025. Only about 80% of planned volumes actually moved from storage.
The warning: Industry groups say economic damage is mounting. They also warn fire risk increases when forests aren't managed. Dead wood builds up. Fires spread faster.
Why it happened: Administrative delays. Transport bottlenecks. Weak demand. The problems piled up through the year.
The takeaway: Eastern European supply is tightening. Bulgarian hardwood buyers may need alternative sources. Source: Fordaq | Novinite
4. 🇬🇧 UK Anti-Deforestation Law — Still No Timeline
The UK says it remains "committed" to tackling deforestation. But there's no schedule for implementing the Forest Risk Commodities Regulations.
The uncertainty: Companies preparing for UKFRCR compliance don't know when rules start. Investment decisions hang in limbo. Some firms prepare anyway. Others wait.
EUDR parallel: The EU delayed its regulation twice. Now December 2026 for large operators. The UK may follow similar patterns of delay.
The takeaway: Don't rush UK compliance spending until dates are firm. Focus on EU requirements first. Source: Fordaq
📅 The Weeks Ahead
January 21-23, 2026: Central European Biomass Conference (CEBC), Graz, Austria
January 28, 2026: Verra Stakeholder Webinar — Review processes, methodology updates, CORSIA/Article 6 (11:00 AM ET / 17:00 CET)
January 30, 2026: UK Oxford-Cambridge National Forest — Expression of Interest deadline
January 31, 2026: Verra Nature Framework — Expression of Interest deadline
February 1, 2027: Verra VMD0054 v1.0 inactivation (plan ahead)
April 30, 2026: EUDR simplification review deadline
December 30, 2026: EUDR deadline for large and medium operators
🎯 One Thing to Try This Week
Map your Baltic timber exposure.
Estonia's price surge caught many buyers off guard. Take 15 minutes to answer:
What percentage of your softwood comes from Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania?
Do you have contracts or spot purchases?
Can your Finnish or Swedish suppliers fill gaps?
What's your transport cost difference for alternatives?
Are your sawmill partners affected?
If Baltic timber is more than 10% of your supply, talk to your procurement team this week. A 20% price swing deserves attention before your next order.
Until Thursday!
Wish you all the best: Peter
P.S. What’s the biggest challenge you’re facing in forestry right now?
Hit reply and let me know — I read every message personally.
P. P. S. Know a forest professional who’s drowning in EUDR complexity or missing out on timber market shifts? Forward this email to them!
📩 Got this email forwarded to you? Subscribe to ForestryBrief here.
📚 Missed an issue? Browse the ForestryBrief archive
If you like FB be sure to subscribe to Boreal Tech Brief, a newsletter of my friend Axel covering tech in forestry with a Nordic angle:
