European Forestry Pulse #28 🌲

Hello,

One million hectares of European land burned this year. That's triple the average. It equals one-third the size of Belgium. 35% occurred in forests. Ten people died. The numbers keep getting worse.

Meanwhile, the Commission just adopted the formal EUDR amendment proposal. Large companies still face December 30, 2025 deadline with 6-month enforcement grace period. Small operators get one year extension. FSC faces traceability crisis before Panama Assembly. And EUDR compliance costs hit €1.8 billion in Germany alone.

Here's what's moving European forestry this week:

Copernicus satellite data delivered the verdict in early October: more than one million hectares of European land burned in 2025. That's triple the European average for 2006-2024. The area equals approximately one-third the size of Belgium. 35% of burned area was forest.

The human cost: At least 10 people dead according to AFP. Countless homes destroyed. Communities evacuated. Firefighters working around the clock for months. The emotional and social toll is immeasurable.

The economic damage: The European Court of Auditors estimates €2 billion in annual losses. This includes property destruction, emergency response costs, lost timber value, ecosystem damage, and economic disruption. Insurance claims are still being tallied.

The climate impact: Wildfires released 42 million tonnes of CO₂ in 2025 alone. Plus 80 kilotonnes of CO₂-equivalent methane. These emissions cancel out years of forest carbon sequestration. The fires turned carbon sinks into carbon sources. Forest climate mitigation strategies just took a massive hit.

Where it happened: Italy led EU-27 countries with 589 fires. Spain recorded 322. Romania had 489. Portugal 184. France 249. Bulgaria 92. Greece 65. Only Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, and Malta reported no wildfires. Each country has its own story. Southern Europe faced extreme heat and drought. Eastern Europe dealt with abandoned agricultural land creating fuel loads. Mediterranean forests burned in landscapes shaped by centuries of human activity.

The response: The Emergency Response Coordination Centre deployed over 670 firefighters from 14 European countries to high-risk areas. The rescEU wildfire fighting fleet - planes and helicopters - proved critical. Cross-border cooperation worked. Mutual aid functioned. But it wasn't enough to stop the scale of devastation.

Why this matters for forestry: These aren't just wildfires. They're a signal. Climate patterns are changing faster than forests can adapt. Management strategies built for historical fire regimes don't work anymore. Insurance costs are rising. Investment risk calculations are shifting. Forest owners face new questions: Which species will survive future fire seasons? Where should we invest in fire breaks? How do we value timber that might burn before harvest? What's the insurance premium for climate risk?

What the Commission is doing: The European Commission announced plans for a European Climate Resilience Plan by end of 2026. This will include forest fire prevention, early warning systems, cross-border coordination, and climate adaptation strategies. But 2026 is next year. The fires are burning now. The gap between policy timelines and climate reality keeps widening.

The technical challenge: Modern firefighting equipment helps. Satellite monitoring improves early detection. Weather forecasting gives advance warning. But you can't fight 589 fires simultaneously with 670 firefighters. The math doesn't work. Prevention matters more than response. Fuel management. Strategic harvesting. Fire-resistant species selection. Landscape-level planning. These aren't optional anymore. They're survival strategies.

The forest management shift: Traditional European forestry assumed stable climate patterns. Fire was regional risk, not continental threat. That assumption is dead. Fire risk is now fundamental to European forest planning. This changes everything. Species selection. Rotation ages. Road networks. Harvest scheduling. Insurance coverage. Investment horizons. Risk assessment models need rebuilding from foundation.

What happens next: The 2025 fire season isn't an outlier. It's the new baseline. Next year could be worse. Or the year after. Climate projections show increasing fire risk across most of Europe. Longer fire seasons. More extreme conditions. Higher fuel moisture deficits. Forest owners can't prevent climate change. But they can adapt forests to survive it. The question is whether adaptation happens fast enough.

The insurance problem: Standard forest insurance policies were written for old climate patterns. Many policies explicitly exclude or limit wildfire coverage in high-risk areas. Premiums are climbing. Some insurers are exiting forest coverage entirely in southern Europe. This creates a cascade effect. Banks require insurance for forest-backed loans. No insurance means no financing. Limited financing means reduced investment. Reduced investment means degraded forests. Degraded forests burn more easily. The spiral continues.

The opportunity: Crisis forces innovation. Fire-resistant forest design. Mixed-species stands with lower fuel continuity. Strategic firebreak networks. Early warning systems. Community-based fire prevention. Indigenous burning practices adapted for European conditions. Some forest owners will see this as threat. Others will see it as transition. The difference will determine who succeeds in the next decade.

What this means for you: Run your wildfire risk assessment now. Don't wait for insurance premium renewal. Check your forest's fire risk rating through national forest services. Review access roads - are they clear enough for emergency equipment? Contact your insurer about updated coverage options. The forests that survive the next decade will be the ones managed with fire risk as central planning factor. Not an afterthought. Not a regional concern. Central to every decision. One million hectares burned this year. How many will burn next year? The forests we manage now determine the answer. Source: FIRE-RES Analysis, European Parliament

Update from Tuesday's Issue: The formal proposal we said didn't exist? It exists now. The European Commission adopted a legal proposal for targeted EUDR amendment on October 21, 2025.

What changed: Two-tier timeline system:

The objectives: Reduce IT system load to ensure proper functioning. Diminish administrative burden. But Commission is explicit: "In no way calls into question the objectives of the Regulation." The environmental goals remain.

What happens next: European Parliament and Council must formally adopt before it takes effect. The same tight timeline we discussed Tuesday applies. This could still fail or get amended in trilogue negotiations.

The reality: Most forestry companies are large or medium operators. Your December 30, 2025 deadline probably didn't move. You just got a 6-month enforcement grace period. Don't confuse grace period with compliance deadline.

The takeaway: The formal proposal is here. Big companies still face end-of-year deadline with enforcement flexibility. Small operators get one year extension. Keep working on compliance. Source: EU Commission DG ENV

German timber industry faces €1.8 billion in initial EUDR compliance costs. Plus €1.2 billion in annual ongoing expenses. Finland's Pellervo Economic Research projects €207 million startup costs and €65 million annually for domestic companies. Only 39% of timber companies report being currently on track to meet EUDR obligations. The readiness gap is huge. Many companies underestimated complexity. Others delayed preparation hoping for another delay. But some companies are ready. Stora Enso's Packaging Materials Division reached EUDR readiness a year ahead of schedule. They deployed a digital traceability platform developed with Solita. The system works. Companies that invested early are positioned for compliance regardless of delay outcomes.

The takeaway: EUDR costs are real whether deadline is December 2025 or December 2026. Start investing now - late movers pay premium prices for rushed implementation. Source: Fastmarkets

Earthsight's Tara Ganesh issued stark warning on October 15: "Without traceability, FSC risks becoming irrelevant." After years investigating illegal logging and timber laundering, Ganesh says FSC credibility hinges on one decisive step: end-to-end traceability. The FSC General Assembly runs October 26-31 in Panama City. Traceability debates will dominate. Preferred by Nature and other watchdogs have documented systematic weaknesses in FSC Chain of Custody systems. The certification faces credibility crisis over slow governance and weak enforcement. Meanwhile, PEFC reports 294 million hectares of certified forest globally with over 13,500 chain of custody certificates. Both systems face pressure to strengthen traceability as EUDR raises baseline requirements for all timber imports.

The takeaway: Certification standards are under intense scrutiny. Enhanced traceability requirements are coming regardless of which system you use. Source: Preferred by Nature

Ireland's Minister for Agriculture Martin Heydon published draft principles on October 14 and launched second public consultation on National Carbon Farming Framework. The framework aims to reward farmers for actions that remove and store carbon in soils, forests, grasslands, croplands, and hedgerows. This connects to broader Budget 2026 forestry announcements. Total forestry investment reaches €93 million - an additional €5 million over previous budget. This includes a Forestry Reconstitution Scheme for windblown sites subject to departmental approval. Ireland's Forestry Programme in 2025 nearly doubled planting rates since 2024. The carbon farming framework creates additional revenue streams for landowners who manage for carbon storage alongside traditional outputs.

The takeaway: Carbon farming payments are moving from concept to operational programs. Ireland's framework could become template for other EU countries. Source: Irish Government

Stora Enso demonstrated breakthrough achievement through its Woodcircles project: two full-scale cross-laminated timber panels made from 100% recycled wood. Produced at the Ybbs an der Donau mill in Austria. This milestone demonstrates the transformative potential of upcycling wood construction waste into high-quality, standardized engineered wood products. The circular economy for timber just got real. Construction waste becomes building material. Linear value chain becomes circular. Ireland's new report on timber construction estimated baseline market in 2025 at almost 670,000 m³ valued at approximately €180 million. Potential to rise to 1.85 million cubic metres by 2030 through increased adoption of engineered wood products and mass-engineered timber.

The takeaway: Recycled wood CLT proves circular construction is technically feasible. Watch for regulatory acceptance and market adoption of recycled timber in structural applications. Source: Woodcircles

UK timber and panel product imports fell nearly 3% in first half of 2025. But engineered wood products saw 14% growth. Laminated veneer lumber imports rose nearly 10% year-on-year. Finland and Poland together supplied over 90% of UK LVL demand. Softwood plywood enjoyed 12.6% growth. Brazil consolidated its position as the number one supplying country. The shift is clear: declining commodity timber imports, rising value-added product imports. This reflects broader construction industry trends. Mass timber buildings increase. Off-site fabrication expands. Traditional dimensional lumber loses share to engineered alternatives.

The takeaway: Value is moving up the supply chain. Consider how your timber fits into engineered wood product manufacturing rather than just commodity markets. Source: Timber Development UK

The United Nations named four new World Restoration Flagships on October 13 under the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration. The initiatives span 18 countries across four continents. They're already restoring more than 500,000 hectares. Expected to have under restoration almost 500,000 additional hectares by 2030. Total impact: nearly one million hectares of degraded ecosystems returned to health. The Flagship designation provides recognition, technical support, and potential funding access. It signals best practice in landscape-scale restoration. These aren't small pilot projects. They're transformational programs demonstrating how restoration works at scale.

The takeaway: Large-scale restoration is becoming operational reality. Watch these flagships for lessons on stakeholder engagement, financing models, and technical approaches. Source: FAO

October 26-31, 2025: FSC General Assembly in Panama City. Traceability debates critical. Intact Forest Landscapes policy decisions expected.

October 27-30, 2025: 61st International Tropical Timber Council session in Panama City.

November 2, 2025: Luxembourg PEFC consultation closes. Cross-border certification harmonization at stake.

November 10-21, 2025: COP30 Climate Summit in Belém, Brazil. The "forest COP" - expect major forest carbon and REDD+ announcements. CDR procurement programs likely on agenda.

November 19-22, 2025: Vietnam Wood Show in Ho Chi Minh City. Asia-Pacific market opportunities for European exporters.

Run your wildfire risk assessment. With Europe's worst fire season on record, don't wait for next year's fires to start.

Three steps, one hour:

The forests managed with fire risk as central planning factor will be the ones standing in 2030. Take the first step this week.

Until Tuesday!

Wish you all the best: Peter

P.S. What’s the biggest challenge you’re facing in forestry right now?
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